WILLIAM HILL 2015 ENGLISH GREYHOUND DERBY
SEMI-FINALS SATURDAY JUNE 20th WIMBLEDON
Feisty Four remain in chase of £250,000 and immortality!
So the Derby field was halved from 24 to a semi-final
line-up of 12 aspiring champions on Tuesday and we saw our cavalry reduced from
8 to 4. You could say that was a decent return in keeping with the statistics
for the round but it could have been so much better with Clares Wonder and
Jaytee Jet missing out by just a short-head in their respective heats while
Gaytime Hawk was arguably the unlucky runner of the whole round when losing his
comfortable qualifying position by running into the back of Geelo Vegas at the
closing bends of heat 3.
Bully-like Blitz really wants it!
Farloe Blitz |
The consolation when losing Clares Wonder however was a
scintilating display by Owen McKenna’s outright favourite Farloe Blitz when he
got us off to a flyer in the opener, answering his Derby call when put to the
sword by a blistering start from Evanta Fantasy on his inner. Cementing his
place at the top of the market he showed an admirable determination to
forcefully claim the lead entering the second bend in the manner of hound with
a deep cited hatred for being led and remains our leading hope for glory in
2015.
Irish Tricast closes quarter session
Sanchez & Maverick |
Worryingly then, we had to wait until the final heat to
qualify another for the semi-finals and thankfully, a plausible chance to fill
the tricast places was converted with Pat Buckley safely guiding his duo of
Paradise Maverick and Lenson Sanchez through with the pair split by Peter
Cronin’s Tynwald Bish. Cronin lost out with Salonika here but he will have been
delighted with the smart start and early pace that Bish showed. Run out of
first position by Paradise Maverick in the home-straight was no disgrace and
the winning time of 28.28 means that all three remain serious Derby contenders.
Irish on top but Vegas may dictate fortunes
Indeed our four survivors all feature in the top 6 of the
betting market and the prospect of the £250,000 first prize making a hasty
conversion to Euros is beginning to look increasing more likely. Although the
home team still have their sprinter Geelo Vegas in the semi’s, we have the most
potent early pacer in Farloe Blitz, for his burst of speed can last almost to
the finish line but that British sprinter may hold a big key to the hopes of
all our runners. What Blitz does not want in the final is a runner that can
lead him to the bend and bring the possibility of a bump. The most likely
remaining runner to cause such a headache would be Geelo Vegas, and Farloe
Blitz would be doing himself a big favour in the semi-final if he could trap
well and deny this fellow a lead which would almost certainly ensure his
elimination.
Enigmatic Rio Quattro |
It is my contention that we also have the most potent stayer
left in through Irish Cesarewitch winner Paradise Maverick. He proved why he is
so feared on these shores when within any reasonable striking distance on the
back-straight by powering to a 28.28 victory on Tuesday. The English will
contest this opinion and point to Rio Quattro who ran Eden The Kid so close on
Tuesday and who has posted 28.29 in the competition. However I labelled him a
Derby Bismark last week and will not budge from that opinion which is not
intended as a slight on his talent but it was disappointing that he could not
clock better than 28.67 when in front at halfway in round 3. He seems to do his
best running with a hound to aim at, and the decorum shown when expressing concerns
about his chances in this column last week was brashly lacking when outspoken
Sky Sports presenter Matt Chapman openly questioned whether he prefers chasing
dogs than the bunny!
Geelo Vegas could also have a real say on whether Paradise
Maverick could take Derby victory. Should Farloe Blitz and Maverick reach the
final, the Buckley runners chances would surely be enhanced by having a rival
in the field that could possibly deny Blitz a second bend lead. Reeling in
Farloe Blitz would be a much more daunting prospect than doing the same to
Geelo Vegas. Vegas himself is no also ran for any runner with his early pace
clearly holds claims in a Wimbledon Derby but he could also be a big factor in
where the crown ends up, if not with himself!
THE DRAW & PREVIEWS
1st SEMI-FINAL
1) Rio Quattro
2) Farloe Blitz
3) Eden The Kid(m)
4) Geelo Vegas(m)
5) Diego Flight(w)
6) Roxholme Ted(w)
McKenna Derby dream still Live! |
The Derby favourite is our sole representative in the opener
and an intriguing heat it is. He has a viable rival for the second bend lead in
top class sprinter Geelo Vegas but trap 2 appears ideal with slower starter Rio
Quattro on his inner. Track record holder Eden The Kid’s best start would not
be enough to inconvenience Blitz on the run to the bend and even if Geelo Vegas
does lead up, expect the McKenna favourite to both rail well and fly off the
second bend to set up his inevitable passing move on the back-straight.
Excepting a bump in the early strides, which may occur, “The Kid” would surely
follow these around and be certain to fill a qualifying place at the minimum.
With Geelo Vegas headed before the closing bends, he will be all out to cling
on to a final place. The logical assumption would be that Eden The Kid and Rio
Quattro will the ones applying the pressure, with the former first in line and
while Diego Flight is respected as a finisher, with at least one tail to aim
at, Rio Quattro would be too hard to reel in.
Win:2 F/C: 2-4 T/C: 2-4-1
2nd SEMI-FINAL
1) Paradise Maverick
2) Making Paper(m)
3) Millwards Davy(m)
4) Lenson Sanchez(m)
5) Tynwald Bish(w)
6) Viking Jack(w)
Cronin's Bish must Break! |
Three Irish runners renew rivalry here and it is not beyond
the realms of possibility that they can fill the tricast places again. That won’t
be easy but it is the fancy, especially if Paradise Maverick repeats his
improved start of Tuesday. He is almost assured the freedom, such as it is, of
the inside on the run to the bend and with that room to race independently is
the clear choice for victory. Viking Jack has returned to his more usual
breaking form the last twice and we must fancy that the early battle on the
outer can be fought by Tynwald Bish and Lenson Sanchez, this scenario is
crucial to getting both through. Bish must be forward off the second bend and
probably needs to be in front but he can with a repeat of last week’s start. It
is also vital that Sanchez begin well and turn into the first bend ahead of
both Millwards Davy and Making Paper for all three English runners in the heat
stay well and while they struggle to reach the top clocks, will pounce on any
opening if offered to them.
Patriotism aside (honestly), Sanchez and Tynwald dominated
the outside battle early on with the pair heading Paradise Maverick at the
bend. Possibly Tynwald edges it off the second bend but from this point expect
a repeat of Tuesday’s quarter-final with Maverick again preferred. They must
race without bumping at the bottom bends because if there is, it will become a
lottery but not for the strongest runner Maverick who you would still expect to
prevail even with bumping at that stage.
Win: 1 F/C: 1-4 T/C: 1-4-5
IRISH SURVIVORS
PAT BUCKLEY(2)
PARADISE MAVERICK
16Jun Wdon 480m [1] 4.88 4332 1st 1¼ Tynwald Bish Bp1,ROn,LRIn 28.28 N 5/2 OR 28.28
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [2] 4.92 3322 2nd 1¼ Teds Last Bmp1, Chl3-4 28.30 N 8/1 OR 28.41
06Jun15 Wdon 480m [1] 4.98 5555 3rd 1¾ Jet Stream Sound Rls,RnOn 28.47 +10 6/4F OR 28.72
27May15 Wdon 480m [3] 4.90 2333 2nd shd Lenson Sanchez RnOn 28.17 +20 7/2 OR 28.38
LENSON SANCHEZ
16Jun Wdon 480m [3] 4.83 2223 3rd 1¾ Paradise Maverik CrdRnUp, RnOn 28.28 N 10/11F OR 28.43
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [4] 4.83 2111 1st 4 Clares Wonder Ld1 28.12 N 5/2 OR 28.12
05Jun15 Wdon 480m [1] 4.83 6433 2nd 3¼ Evanta Fantasy Bmp1,RnOn 28.56 N 7/4 OR 28.82
27May15 Wdon 480m [2] 4.88 3222 1st shd Paradise Maveri LdNrLn 28.17 +20 11/8F OR 28.37
PETER CRONIN(1)
TYNWALD BISH
16Jun Wdon 480m [4] 4.79 1111 2nd 1¼ Paradise Maverik QAw, Ld-RnIn 28.28 N 8/1 OR 28.39
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [5] 4.84 2122 2nd ½ Rio Quattro Chl1-1/2 28.67 N 5/1 OR 28.72
06Jun15 Wdon 480m [6] 4.94 6333 2nd 4 Coolavanny Jap Crd&W1, RnOn 28.32 N 7/2 OR 28.65
30May15 Wdon 480m [5] 4.89 3222 2nd 3½ Leamaneigh Turbo ClrRn 28.21 +20 3/1 OR 28.69
OWEN McKENNA(1)
FARLOE BLITZ
16Jun Wdon 480m [2] 4.76 3111 1st 1 Millwards Davy EP, Ld1 28.32 +10 4/5F OR 28.42
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [1] 4.74 4111 1st 1¼ Boyneside Fun Bmp&Ld1 28.36 N 6/4F OR 28.36
05Jun15 Wdon 480m [3] 4.67 4111 1st 2½ Rio Quattro QAw, SnLd 27.99 +10 8/13F OR 28.09
27May15 Wdon 480m [3] 4.74 3111 1st 1½ Roxholme Ted EP, SnLd 28.21 +10 10/11F OR 28.31
Irish Derby assault still on track with three winners and an eager eight survivors
The Derby field was again halved on Saturday last so from an
Irish point of view, retaining three quarters of our survivors is a pleasing
and admirable effort from our charges and in boxing terms, we are definitely
ahead on points having landed some of the more significant blows on the night.
***Breaking News/Droopys Nidge out of Quarter Final!
***Breaking News/Droopys Nidge out of Quarter Final!
The outlook was ominously worrying when losing both Quietly
and Riverside Pat in the opener but we gratefully got Salonika through there
and the remainder of the heats saw an upturn in fortune, even if not immediately
apparent when Coolavanny Jap was cruelly denied a third bend run and a certain
qualifying place behind Teds Last and kennelmate Paradise Maverick in Heat 2.
Contrasting fortune within this heat saw the end of Droopys Nidge Derby dream
until saved by that third bend melee but he has now highlighted to his English
supporters, the reservations that most on these shores always held about him as
regards the rigorous demands of a Derby campaign.
Sanchez sets the session alight
Sanchez(2) in winning action |
We had to wait until heat 4 to see an Irish winner and Lenson
Sanchez made that wait worth while when returning to his sizzling round 1 form
by dominating throughout in the fastest time of the night, 28.12. Once denying
Clares Wonder the lead, he would always take victory but this forecast was a
welcome result for two very viable Derby prospects.
Blitz the boss
Farloe Blitz |
There can be no doubt that the performance of the round came
in heat 5 when Owen McKenna’s Farloe Blitz settled any argument about who was
the leading player in this Derby by taking the “heat of death” in decisive
fashion with early pace that can continue to end the Derby hopes of high
profile runners. He ensured that Newinn Yolo and Eden The Kid would need to
battle for their place in the quarter-final and it must be said that the latter
did enhance his credentials when displaying an admirable battling quality to
add to his undoubted Derby class speed.
However, when Blitz leads to the bend,
it puts wrench like pressure on his rivals, making things increasingly tighter
behind him for an improving class of rival each round and the more often he
does, the more dangerous the Derby gets for those in his wake. Be in no doubt,
Blitz is the biggest player!
A rock solid performance by Peter Cronin’s Tynwald Bish when
actually taking ground out of Rio Quattro late on augurs well for his chances
of further progression and for me only reinforced that Rio Quattro is a Derby
Bismark as the prospect of him leading so soon in a heat again is highly
unlikely and even his most fervent supporters must have been hoping that he
could win by a wide margin when in front at halfway.
The final heat was a body blow for this commentator as the
NAP of the night, Gaytime Hawk was denied victory by the Derby Dark Horse
Jaytee Jet when the penny finally dropped at traps for the Paul Hennessy
powerhouse. He now adds greatly to our Derby challenge if he can repeat his
4.83 split for the manner in which he dismissed the challenge of Gaytime Hawk
on the back-straight was simply brilliant especially when considered that the
Holland runner is no shrinking violet in this Derby despite ceding to Jet this
time.
Too much fuss made of extra run
Overall we claimed 3 victories and got 8 through to the
quarters, a fine return from our twelve round 2 survivors. We now face into the
much debated three runs in a week and you will hear pundits and commentators
surmising about which dogs will handle the extra run better than his rivals or
which will struggle. If your favourite speaker or writer starts into that,
turn them off. We are dealing with some of the fittest living beings on the
planet with some of the most talented, scientific and gifted handlers that ever
held a greyhound. They should and will, all be well able for it! Excepting
the likely possibility that some may have a niggling injury or two, they are
bred to run, they are super fit and are in expert hands. Unless you are in
the kennels you don’t know anything of possible injuries, and you can’t be in
all the kennels. Pondering the extra run in terms of giving advise or punting
guides is futile. We can only do what we have done for each round so far, take
the form on offer and assume all are capable to repeat or build on that!
Heat by Heat Previews
1st Quarter-Final
1 EVANTA FANTASY
2 FARLOE BLITZ
3 MILLWARDS DAVY (M)
4 DIEGO FLIGHT (W)
5 CLARES WONDER (W)
6 ROMANY ROUGE (W)
McKenna dream is alive & well |
We can only greet this draw with glee from an Irish point of
view with both our runners having what appear ideal draws to reach the
semi-finals. Trap 2 looks perfect for Farloe Blitz and although both the bitch
Evanta Fantasy and brilliant round 3 winner Millwards Davy warrant the utmost
respect, it is hard to see how they can deny the McKenna runner the lead on the
inside now. The same can be said about Clares Wonder on the outside where he
can surely lead Diego Flight and Romany Rouge. This heat should be all about
the Irish Pair and the reverse forecast looks nailed on. However there is merit
in considering a sporting small wager on Clares Wonder at likely good odds. The
heat offers him his most plausible chance since the opening night to race completely
independently on the run-up and could possibly lead up if Blitz didn’t make the
fastest of starts. For me, I’ll leave it alone and my prediction would be a
Farloe Blitz win, with Clares Wonder close behind while Romany Rouge may stay
on and take third after the much respected Millwards Davy and Evanta Fantasy
have been inconvenience by being denied the lead by the Irish pair.
Verdict: R F/C 2-5
2nd Quarter-Final
1 EVANTA EVITA
2 RIO QUATTRO
3 MAKING PAPER (M)
4 EDEN THE KID (M)
5 WOTNOFIZZ (W)
6 BOYNESIDE FUN (W)
Eden The Kid |
No Irish here and a real opportunity for Eden The Kid to
return to winning ways as the heat appears to have a make up where we can
predict the early yards. Evanta Evita can retain her place on the rails as she
has handled trap 1 at Wimbledon and Rio Quattro will have plenty to occupy him
on the run up. A bump for him would put his chances of qualifying in serious
jeopardy with the presence of Making Paper a complication for Rio should he
again sneak a run at the bend because he will be as strong on the run home as
Rio. All this should be taking place after Eden The Kid and Boyneside Fun have
shown the best early pace to contest the lead to the bend before “the Kid”
takes over, dominates and returns to his blistering clocks. Having Making Paper
on his inner should offer plenty of wiggle room for Eden The Kid and he is a
strong fancy to qualify with Boyneside Fun and Evanta Evita.
Win:4 C T/C: 4-1-6
3rd Quarter-Final
1 GAYTIME HAWK
2 GEELO VEGAS (M)
3 TEDS LAST (M)
4 VIKING JACK (W)
5 JAYTEE JET (W)
6 ROXHOLME TED (W)
Such a complicated heat here and both our representatives
will need to be sharp to progress. It’s well known at this stage that I am a
Gaytime Hawk fan but he took a jink to the right when leaving trap 1 in round 2
and if he does that here he could be in all sorts of bother. Geelo Vegas on his
outer has been progressive throughout his campaign, improving his finish time
each run and producing a brilliant start last time out. Trap 2 appears ideal for
him and he has enough early pace to fend off Teds Last on the run up. The Hawk
must trap and match him on the inner or else he has a huge task on his paws.
One of the most impressive cameos of this Derby so far was
for me, the manner in which Teds Last dismissed the challenge of Paradise
Maverick on the back-straight on Saturday. I did not believe Maverick could be
beaten with the prominent position he held at halfway and I can only draw
the conclusion that Teds Last is the real deal! I have too much green running
through me to back him here but patriotism aside, he would be a maximum bet
fancy for the heat with a run on the outside of Geelo Vegas early on before
asserting off the second bend.
Kevin Hennessy knows the talent of Jaytee Jet |
Once again the complication in the heat will be Jaytee Jet.
He is adding greatly to this Derby and if reinforcing the improvement shown on
Saturday, is a threat to all. Excepting my admiration for Gaytime Hawk, I would
love to see himself and Teds Last locked together at halfway and see what
happens! However, as a betting option he is still extremely hard to recommend.
He is now back in trap 5 which he failed to break from in the first 2 rounds
and everything says that he will be rolling the dice for another strong finish
to try sneak a qualifying place.
Even when Viking Jack repeated his fast start in round 2, I
was not convinced he would do it again and I’m still not. If he does, he has a
great chance to qualify and fair play to him but he is not a betting option
here either. The deeper you look, the best chances for a run are with Geelo
Vegas and Teds Last and the latter is clearly the one to be on even though I will
be screaming for Hawk and Jet to reproduce their best starts.
Win: 3
4th Quarter-Final *** Breaking News/Droopys Nidge withdrawn!!
1 PARADISE MAVERIK
2 BLONDE NIPPER (M)
3 LENSON SANCHEZ (M)
4 TYNWALD BISH (W)
5 SALONIKA (W)
6 DROOPYS NIDGE (W)
Nidge must prove he can bounce back |
I gave a big enough reel of concerns about Nidge before
Saturday’s heat and I won’t be doing again now but he was lucky then and may
need to be here also. Ok, if he does the 4.77 he’s away and gone and back at
the top of the market but unless he clears the Peter Cronin pair inside him, he
will be in allsorts of you know what again. It’s a tough and complicated heat
but in reality it does all hinge around Sanchez. Yes Blonde Nipper can come
away better than Saturday but Sanchez was gorgeous then and has plausible
claims of leading him up here. If he does that, the heat is over. He will repel
all on his outer, have a lovely pitch at the bend and scoot clear. Being on his
right looks ideal for Tynwald Bish and having lowered his split on Saturday he
is warming to his Derby challenge, possesses quality pace all round and has a
good profile in the context of this heat. Kennelmate Salonika will not be
moving in on top of him too soon and the possibility of racing room gives him a
real chance to qualify but probably at the chief expense of his travelling
companion.
So to Paradise Maverick. I didn’t like him from trap 1 in
round 2 and am not happy to see him there again now. It was disappointing to
see him beaten on Saturday from a position that he would rarely secure on the
back-straight of a 480m competition and that did dent his credentials, but
could you rule him out of qualifying now?....Well no has to be the answer to
that. He is still a strong finisher, who could sneak a rails run and get up for
a place late on. He probably has to be in front of Blonde Nipper before the
third bend to do that however and it is fair to say that he has a big task on
his paws now.
Win: 3 F/C 3-4
IRISH SURVIVORS
PAT BUCKLEY (2)
PARADISE MAVERICK
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [2] 4.92 3322 2nd 1¼ Teds Last Bmp1, Chl3-4 28.30 N 8/1 OR 28.41
06Jun15 Wdon 480m [1] 4.98 5555 3rd 1¾ Jet
Stream Sound Rls,RnOn 28.47 +10 6/4F OR 28.72
27May15 Wdon 480m [3] 4.90 2333 2nd shd Lenson
Sanchez RnOn 28.17 +20 7/2 OR 28.38
LENSON
SANCHEZ
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [4] 4.83 2111 1st 4 Clares Wonder Ld1 28.12 N 5/2 OR 28.12
05Jun15 Wdon 480m [1] 4.83 6433 2nd 3¼ Evanta
Fantasy Bmp1,RnOn 28.56 N 7/4 OR 28.82
27May15 Wdon 480m [2] 4.88 3222 1st shd Paradise
Maveri LdNrLn 28.17 +20 11/8F OR 28.37
GRAHAM
HOLLAND (2)
CLARES WONDER
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [6] 4.82 1222 2nd 4 Lenson Sanchez W, Ld-1 28.12 N 10/11F OR 28.44
06Jun15 Wdon 480m [5] 4.78 2332 2nd 3¾ Newinn
Yolo W, EvCh
28.03 +10 11/4 OR 28.43
28May15 Wdon 480m [6] 4.72 1111 1st 1 Swift
Keith QAw,ALd 28.44 N 4/5F OR 28.44
GAYTIME HAWK
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [2] 4.84 3222 2nd 2¼ Jaytee Jet EvCh 28.27 N 4/1 OR 28.46
06Jun15 Wdon 480m [1] 4.93 1444 3rd 2 On
Alert Bmp&PSt,HRls1 28.51 N 8/11F OR 28.68
28May15 Wdon 480m [2] 4.88 5332 1st ½ Tinahue
Pinto LdRnIn
28.51 N 11/8F OR 28.51
PETER CRONIN
(2)
TYNWALD BISH
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [5] 4.84 2122 2nd ½ Rio Quattro Chl1-1/2 28.67 N 5/1 OR 28.72
06Jun15 Wdon 480m [6] 4.94 6333 2nd 4 Coolavanny
Jap Crd&W1, RnOn 28.32 N 7/2 OR 28.65
30May15 Wdon 480m [5] 4.89 3222 2nd 3½ Leamaneigh
Turbo ClrRn 28.21 +20 3/1 OR 28.69
SALONIKA
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [5] 4.93 5443 2nd 2 Geelo Vegas W, ClrRn 28.36 N 12/1 OR 28.52
05Jun15 Wdon 480m [6] 4.76 1111 1st nk Glenpadden
Lord EP, LdRnUp 28.46 +10 8/1 OR 28.56
29May15 Wdon 480m [6] 4.90 4311 1st 3¾ Sparta
Flame Crd1, Ld1/2 29.18 -10 7/2 OR 29.08
OWEN McKENNA
FARLOE BLITZ
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [1] 4.74 4111 1st 1¼ Boyneside Fun Bmp&Ld1 28.36 N 6/4F OR 28.36
05Jun15 Wdon 480m [3] 4.67 4111 1st 2½ Rio
Quattro QAw, SnLd 27.99 +10 8/13F OR 28.09
27May15 Wdon 480m [3] 4.74 3111 1st 1½ Roxholme
Ted EP, SnLd 28.21 +10 10/11F OR 28.31
PAUL HENNESY
JAYTEE JET
13Jun15 Wdon 480m [6] 4.83 4111 1st 2¼ Gaytime Hawk EP, Ld1 28.27 N 8/1 OR 28.27
05Jun15 Wdon 480m [5] 4.95 6644 3rd 3 Salonika SAw 28.46 +10 7/4F OR 28.80
27May15 Wdon 480m [5] 5.04 5322 1st ½ Vanfrankie VSAw, LdRnIn 28.68 N 4/5F OR 28.68
ROUND 3 WIMBLEDON SATURDAY JUNE 13th
HEAT 1
1 IBIZA ROCKS
2 QUIETLY
3 RIVERSIDE PAT
4 GEELO VEGAS (M)
5 SALONIKA (W)
6 DIEGO FLIGHT (W)
We could have hoped for a better spread than to have 3 Irish
runners in the same heat tonight but at least all have plausible claims of
qualification here. We must fancy Quietly to lead up and if we are to fill all
3 places then he must. Ibiza Rocks is no slouch in the early strides so it is
crucial that the Ian Reilly charge ends his Derby in the opening 50 yards now
by denying him a run on the rails while at the same time offering his tail as a
bulls-eye target for Riverside Pat to aim at on the run to the bend. Pat is not
breaking at Wimbledon and a run in behind Quietly may be his best chance of
avoiding potential bumping at the bend, provided Ibiza Rocks has been quashed
early and is not on Riverside Pat’s inner, ready to dish out a thump upon
turning.
Riverside Pat(2) faces another stiff test in heat 1 |
Overall, Quietly leads around and dominates followed down
the back by Salonika. Anything is possible in behind and as a strong finisher
Diego Flight must be highly respected but there is just too much class about
Riverside Pat and it will take significant bad luck to keep him out.
Win: 2 T/C 2-5-3
HEAT 2
1 BADMOONRISING
2 PARADISE MAVERIK
3 JAYTEE BERLIN
4 TEDS LAST (M)
5 COOLAVANNY JAP (M)
6 DROOPYS NIDGE (W)
If you hadn’t got that distinctive Derby feel before this
heat, you know the one where there is so much class in one place that 15
minutes between races is just not enough to take it all in and get yourself set
to absorb what’s about to happen?......well you’re going to get it now! This is
a vicious heat and a sign of things to come. Pat Buckley will surely be cursing
his luck to have two in any heat but especially this particular one and it will
be difficult to get one through, let alone two but both are plenty capable.
Droopys Nidge |
So we are possibly looking at how can Buckley fill the other
two places. One scenario is that Nidge just about leads up and sweeps into the
bend sharply, as he does, causing mayhem in behind. We would back Paradise
Maverick to emerge from such a situation with his finishing prowess and the
make up of the race overall suggests that he has quite a good draw here. It’s
hard to know what to safely wish for here but Badmoonrising does trap from the
squeeze box and he will forcefully defend the rail. The woeful exit of Maverick
from red last week should be bettered in trap 2 now and he can be expected to
track Badmoonrising for a possible slipstream into the back-straight where he
can be expected to mount a serious challenge. That is a very likely scenario on
the inner and the verdict there is Maverick qualifies.
The application of the middle seed worked a treat for
Coolavanny Jap last week and we must pray that it does again now. Teds Last got
it wrong last week after a brilliant round 1 win and he is crucial to Jap’s
chances now for the Buckley runner must lead him up and retain a position on
the inside of Nidge for a clear run into the back-straight. If he does that, he
can qualify. He sees out the trip well enough to retain a place but we would
want him to be ahead of Badmoonrising before the third bend.
So overall, if we assume a repeat by Nidge, he and Jap race
in close order on the run-up with Badmoonrising dominating the inside.
These
three together at the top of the back-straight with Maverick stalking after
tracking the red jacket on the rail. Maverick denies Jaytee Berlin and Teds
Last their chance as he is too strong at this point after all three were led to
the bend. Nidge asserts before the third bend with Maverick flying at
Badmoonrising. Jap gets a run one the outer of these two, chasing Nidge before
Maverick eventually gets through off the final bend. If that comes through, copy
and paste this paragraph all over the Internet! This is too complicated for a
bet unless you are a Kamikaze who wants to weigh in with a wedge on Nidge. Best
advice is to sit back an enjoy an awesome Derby heat…..oh it’s on!
Coolavanny Jap |
Verdict: No Bet
HEAT 3
1 SWIFT KEITH
2 EVANTA FANTASY
3 EVANTA EVITA
4 JOLLY TRICKS (M)
5 LEAMANEIGH TURBO (M)
6 WOTNOFIZZ (W)
A break for the Irish here in a highly competitive heat
where Leamaneigh Turbo is likely to start favourite and he is hard to adamantly
oppose given the way he is trapping at present. He is likely to lead on the outer
and in doing so deny Wotnofizz his chance and the trap 6 runner is the only
that can be left out of calculations with any sort of confidence. Swift Keith
got it right at the second attempt from trap 1 last time and merits plenty of
respect again now.
He can make a bold bid if he repeats last week’s effort on
the inside of the two brilliant Mark Wallis bitches Fantasy & Evita. It’s a
shame for fans of bitches in all aged classics to see these two drawn beside
each other. The pair are closely matched but being on the inside, Fantasy has
greater claims to qualify and may be worth a punt here. She can go to the bend
and appears to be warming to the Wimbledon boxes. She can match Swift Keith up and
possibly even lead him. Leamaneigh Turbo would be under serious threat come the
closing bends if so and overall she appears the most solid option in the heat.
Rab McNair trains Leamaneigh Turbo |
Win: 2
HEAT 4
1 ON ALERT
2 KENTISH MAN
3 ASCOT WOODIE
4 LENSON SANCHEZ (M)
5 MAKING PAPER (M)
6 CLARES WONDER (W)
Sanchez(2) in round 1 victory |
Lenson Sanchez, has over the two rounds so far, showed many
qualities you could hope to see in a Derby contender. He clocked when finding a
clear run in round 1 and battled for his place last week with steely
determination. Game as you like, he will take some eliminating from this Derby
and can progress now. It may get scary again but that 4.83 split last week was
an improvement, and he is capable of better. Any sort of a run at the bend will
see him flying at Clares Wonder late on and the heat really is all about these
two with On Alert the choice for third.
C T/C: 6-4-1
HEAT 5
1 FARLOE BLITZ
2 COOLAVANNY GOOCH
3 NEWINN YOLO
4 EDEN THE KID (M)
5 BALLYMAC LOCH (M)
6 BOYNESIDE FUN (W)
Three potential and plausible Derby winners in this heat,
mouth watering! Arguably the leading hope of each nation clash here. Ireland’s
Farloe Blitz, England’s Newinn Yolo and Scotland’s Eden The Kid with the
exception of Droopys Nidge have been the three stand out performers so far. The
prospect of losing any one of them at this point was almost unthinkable until
the draw came out, but it is a real possibility now.
The brilliant Farloe Blitz |
It is much more complicated for Yolo than it appears at
first glance because that latest 4.78 split was better than he is renowned for
and if he returns to his more usual and quite adept break it can get tight for
him on the run-up. Coolavanny Gooch is not my idea of a Derby winner but he can
go to the bend and may prove a complicator here if still on Yolo’s shoulder on
the inside because Yolo certainly will not be given any space on his outer by
track record holder Eden The Kid who in turn will struggle for wiggle room with
two smart early paced types in the wide boxes.
Overall we can only trust Farloe Blitz to break and once
that happens this heat should be over as regards the win. There is a real
possibility of a five dog concertina in behind and this is not as simple as the
best dogs qualify. A real Derby head scratcher outside of the fact that Blitz
will win!
Win: 1
HEAT 6
1 GLENPADDEN LORD
2 ROXHOLME KID
3 MILLWARDS DAVY (M)
4 HERE WE GO (M)
5 ROXHOLME TED (W)
6 ROMANY ROUGE (W)
No Irish in this one and a highly competitive contest on
paper if not the hottest of the night. Roxholme Kid found a good start to show
his top quality early pace last week and will be popular again now. He won’t
get it easy on the inside but can probably just about command the rails pitch
at the bend. Should that happen, Hayley Keightley will have sound claims of the
forecast as Roxholme Ted could also control the outside on the run up. He has
more early pace than the two runners either side and expect these to dominate
the race where Glenpadden Lord’s inside run (he has performed out of trap 1
here) may secure him the remaining qualifying spot.
Win: 2 T/C: 2-5-1
HEAT 7
1 GO AHEAD
2 RIO QUATTRO
3 BLONDE NIPPER (M)
4 LENSON TIGGY (M)
5 TYNWALD BISH (W)
6 SHOTGUN HARLEY (W)
Two Irish this time and we do have a chance to get both
through, but it will not be easy. Rio Quattro really stepped up to the plate
last week with a decent break by his standards bringing a clear run to chase
Farloe Blitz home in a sizzling clock. A clear run for him would most likely
see him home here and the prospect of the strong stayer leading up Pat Buckley’s
Go Ahead will make life difficult for the trap 1 runner. He produced a
brilliant effort to chase home Quietly last week and having done that from trap
1, the draw in it’s itself has been kind enough with the prospect of a rails
run again and that’s what he needs. Whether he matches Rio Quattro to the bend
(that would be ideal) or follows him around, he must rail well, keep clean and
try stay on for a place.
On the outside, Tynwald Bish has plenty of early pace at
this level but is not quite trapping at Wimbledon. He should however still lead
Shotgun Harley up and he probably really does need to. Just inside him, Lenson
Tiggy and Blonde Nipper may fight the overall early lead and if they do, they
could plausibly give Bish a nice tow into the back-straight. Peter Cronin’s
strong runner would make a bold bid to qualify in that scenario.
Overall Blonde Nipper would be the vote overall as he can
lead the two on his inner and being on the inside of doubtful stayer Lenson
Tiggy at this point would see a back-straight surge to put him
in control with Tiggy acting as a blocker in behind. This is where we will need
things to go our way. We want Go Ahead railing like the Eurostar, ready to
sneak a run off the final turn where hopefully Tynwald Bish is still in front
of Rio Quattro. We may need some luck and it is going to be a mad scramble,
but we’re in with a shout! For a bet, Nipper is the percentage call and Rio
should ensure that he is a price. That’s if you can bring yourself to shout
against the Irish?!
Win:3
HEAT 8
1 DROOPYS WARD
2 GAYTIME HAWK
3 BUBBLY BEAUTY (M)
4 JET STREAM SOUND (M)
5 VIKING JACK (W)
6 JAYTEE JET (W)
We round off the night with two powerful Irish runners in
their own right. One an almost complete article in the form of Graham Holland’s
Gaytime Hawk, the other and unpolished diamond in Paul Hennessy’s Jaytee Jet.
The latter has much to learn about the game, the first and most urgent being
trapping. As the heats get faster, he is increasingly likely to give away even
more early ground and you would have to be concerned about his prospects now in
a hot heat where many will not be for passing, even with his awesome finishing
power.
Gaytime won Cork Derby trial stake |
Gaytime Hawk however is a different animal altogether and
how grateful it is to see him away from that wretched trap 1 now having almost
lost his Derby chance when exiting in red last week. Expect him to come away
better from trap 2, lead Droopys Ward and a rails run from that point makes him
a big fancy to take the heat. Even if sneaking around on his tail, I’m prepared
to stick my neck out and say Droopys Ward won’t pass him. A more likely
scenario is that when Hawk is in front at the third bend, both Bubbly Beauty
and Viking Jack will be in his slipstream and acting as blockers. Bubbly is
threatening to return to his Shelbourne Park trapping form and has decent early
pace while Viking Jack, an inconsistent breaker until the Derby started, must
be fancied to lead on the outside again.
The race appears set up for third bend trouble but Gaytime
Hawk can be in advance of that threat with a rails run to lead at that stage.
Should that trouble occur, it brings the possibility of a late qualifying surge
from Jaytee Jet but with strong runners like Hawk, Droopy and Jet Stream Sound
he probably needs that to happen for a tricast place. The clear and only
betting option here is a Gaytime Hawk win.
Win: 2
WILLIAM HILL 2015 ENGLISH GREYHOUND DERBY
ROUND 2 Heats 1-8 Friday June 5th **(scroll down for heats 9-16)
HEAT 1
1 Swift Keith
2 Badmoonrising
3 Ninja Turbo
4 Eden The Kid (m)
5 Southfield Blue (w)
6 Screen Critic (w)
2 Badmoonrising
3 Ninja Turbo
4 Eden The Kid (m)
5 Southfield Blue (w)
6 Screen Critic (w)
A somewhat subdued reaction to the new figures posted by
Eden The Kid for the 480 yard Derby trip at Wimbledon on Saturday last was a
little surprising to say the least. It had after all been well banded about
that the record might fall during the 2015 campaign so I can only surmise that
the repeated suggestions that the track was extremely fast for that first
Saturday heat were more in disappointment that the various commentators and
pundits failed to consider the Rab McNair youngster as one likely to achieve
such a feat rather than a lack of appreciation for a sublime display of total
greyhound racing excellence. The remainder of the heats on Saturday
rubber-stamp what a truly awesome display Eden The Kid produced and this
commentator can’t wait to see him repeat the dose on Friday!
New track record holder Eden The Kid |
Maybe he’ll never go as fast again, maybe he’ll go faster,
but if returning in the same form he can take the opening heat of Round 2 where
a break close to level terms will suffice. A 4.79 sectional was impressive as
he clearly did not ping the lids and it is conceivable that he will face an early
test now. Badmoonrising looks the best drawn in the heat and it will be a shock
if he can’t command the rails position at the bend ahead of Swift Keith and
Ninja Turbo. He could match the new record holder to the bend which makes
bumping possible and a possible further complication for “The Kid” would be a
repeat of veteran Screen Critic’s blistering round 1 break. However they would
have to make him the meat in a greyhound sandwich at the first bend to prevent
him from taking control at the top of the back-straight and “The Kid” appears
to have too many gears to suggest he can get beat here. Swift Keith will mount
a late qualification bid and may just pick off 2013 finalist Screen Critic for
3rd.
Win: 4 F/C: 4-2 T/C: 4-2-1
HEAT 2
1 Lenson Premier
2 Riverside Pat
3 Teejays Panther
4 Bubbly Zeus (m)
5 Wot No Fizz (w)
6 Droopys Nidge (w)
2 Riverside Pat
3 Teejays Panther
4 Bubbly Zeus (m)
5 Wot No Fizz (w)
6 Droopys Nidge (w)
Holland can land heat 2 |
Our first Irish runner of the night with Graham Holland’s
Riverside Pat expected to make a bold bid for victory and confidently expected
to progress at the very minimum. Yes, at first glance this appears a great draw
for Nidge with a slow starter on his inside but as we all know, he is not
blessed with Derby class early pace and a repeat of his predictable domination
in round 1 is not so obvious now as Bubbly Zeus could definitely be seen
returning to a little form last week. He can start even faster than his 4.85
split as all at Shelbourne will recall but just a repeat of that latest effort
here would mean Nidge having to negotiate a path on his outer at the bend,
bringing the risk of a bump. The sight of that trap 1 box parked literally on
the curving rail of Wimbledon’s fourth bend is vile, a sentiment it seems that
was also held by Riverside Pat last week when ponderous about starting his
campaign from such cramped surroundings. Expext him to step out much more
smartly this time and claim the inside pitch at the bend from Lenson Premier to
set up a huge challenge on the back-straight. A repeat of his 28.30 trial form
may land this heat with Nidge likely to lose a yard or two while plotting his
way to clear racing room on the back-straight. By the time he does, Pat may
have flown!
You would have to be quite taken with Teejays Panther’s game
2nd to Newinn Yolo last week and it would be hard to leave him out
of trio calculations but let’s keep this simple, an Irish win where the presence
of Nidge ensures a price!
Win: 2
HEAT 3
1 Glenpadden Lord
2 Ring Ben
3 Westmead Alexis
4 Aimnfire (m)
5 Jaytee Jet (w)
6 Salonika (w)
2 Ring Ben
3 Westmead Alexis
4 Aimnfire (m)
5 Jaytee Jet (w)
6 Salonika (w)
Two for the Irish team here in a heat where both hold claims
of progression as both appear likely to have the race run to suit. There was
something of a melee at the first bend when Salonika scored last week but he
suffered plenty of bumps himself before a strong back-straight challenge saw
him home in 29.08. He would be capable of much better with a clear run and he
will get that here, in the early strides at least for Jaytee Jet has not
mastered the art of trapping yet!
Kevin Hennessy holds Jaytee Jet in very high regard |
All the early pace is on the inside here and although one of
the outsiders for the heat, Aimnfire may dictate the faith of the English
runners. He showed good early pace last week from trap 1 and now has a middle
seed applied but a repeat of his round 1 effort would see him turning into the
bend in contention at least if not a touch in front and it could get very scary
for those on his inner. Even if Aimnfire mis-fired, things still look likely to
get tight inside and predicting the fate of traps 1 to 4 here is extremely
tricky.
We do however know what Jaytee Jet will do. He’ll track the
whole field to the first bend, eventually find a gap, power down the back and
fly up the home-straight at whatever is in front. Can we back him? Well no has
to be the answer, but he will qualify with any kind of normal luck. For a bet,
we may do worse than take a small chunk of the Riverside Pat winnings and have
it on the best drawn dog in the race Salonika and hope he gets round the
outside unscathed. The strong runner would be hard to pass if in front at the
third bend and should be a nice price.
Win: 6
HEAT 4
1 Thirteen Bags
2 Roxholme Kid
3 Lemon Laveer
4 Tynwald Rodney (m)
5 Diego Flight (w)
6 Romany Rouge (w)
2 Roxholme Kid
3 Lemon Laveer
4 Tynwald Rodney (m)
5 Diego Flight (w)
6 Romany Rouge (w)
Peter Cronin trains Tynwald Rodney |
A very interesting heat with Tynwald Rodney flying the Irish
flag after a game first round performance when chasing home a strong stayer who
had flown following a bullet break. Barring something similar this time there
is not much early pace on show with the possible exception of Thirteen Bags and
more so Roxholme Kid who would not inconvenience Rodney if either did lead up.
The Cronin charge can repel the two runners on his outside and probably does
need to at least match Diego Flight to the bend.
Win: 4
Heat 5
1 Loughteen Eoin
2 Kentish Man
3 Farloe Nutter
4 Leamaneigh Turbo (m)
5 Roxholme Ted (w)
6 Sozzleberry (w)
2 Kentish Man
3 Farloe Nutter
4 Leamaneigh Turbo (m)
5 Roxholme Ted (w)
6 Sozzleberry (w)
The McNair team have them ready for Rd 1 |
No Irish this time and quite a competitive heat despite the
fact that Leamaneigh Turbo has to be clear favourite to repeat his first round
rout if reproducing the bullet break that he has possessed since his early days
in Ireland. It hasn’t always been in evidence throughout his UK campaign but if
Rab has him sweet, which he claims all his runners are from the word go in the
Derby, then we must fancy him to do it again now. In that case he leads around
and wins with Roxholme Ted following him and threatening late on as he
does not throw in the towel when led.
Verdict: No Bet
HEAT 6
1 Lenson Sanchez
2 Evanta Fantasy
3 King Dec
4 Blue Moment (m)
5 Shotgun Harley (w)
6 Swift Hoffman (w)
2 Evanta Fantasy
3 King Dec
4 Blue Moment (m)
5 Shotgun Harley (w)
6 Swift Hoffman (w)
Sanchez faces stiff examination in heat 6 |
We come roaring back into battle this time with a proper
Derby dog in Pat Buckley’s Lenson Sanchez. He could have found an easier heat
though and we will need a trouble free run. For that he needs to rail well
because leading up here would take a bullet break and the chances of that are
slim from the squeeze box but the canny Buckley must take credit for forward
thinking now. He chucked Sanchez into trap 1 for his last trial here in
preparation for a draw like this. His 4.94 split would have us sweating a first
bend run but with that experience under his belt, we may see him pop out a
little better this time and he would hold big claims of victory if so. He will
carry some ante-post money of mine into the round at 40/1 so I’m plenty willing
to leave the heat alone as a punting venture and just watch him qualify. It’s a
strong heat overall and Swift Hoffman certainly has the best of the draw on the
outside.
The English should get stuck into him with the make up of the race as
those on the inside have much tougher assignments. King Dec is expected to lead
on the rails at the bend as he possesses powerful early toe and can trap much
better than last week. The bitch in trap 2 must be afforded the utmost respect
and should she also lead Sanchez to the back-straight, would post stubborn
resistance all round. It’s too trappy for a punt unless you are with “the Hoff”
and we will see just how realistic the Sanchez Derby claims are, right here
right now!
Verdict: No Bet
HEAT 7
1 Magical Hotch
2 Rio Quattro
3 Farloe Blitz
4 Jolly Tricks (m)
5 Aclamon Messi (w)
6 Marmalady (w)
2 Rio Quattro
3 Farloe Blitz
4 Jolly Tricks (m)
5 Aclamon Messi (w)
6 Marmalady (w)
McKenna can be happy with draw |
We’ll take this draw! Farloe Blitz could not have been more
impressive in victory last week and gets a hugely confident vote to register
back to back wins now.
Two slower starters on his inner could well have been
hand picked by Owen McKenna himself and Jolly Tricks should not trouble him for
very long even if producing his very best start, nor would Aclamon Messi if he
was to repeat his rare ping from last week. Expect Blitz to be in control by
the finish line first time and still be there the second! With the likelihood
of first run on Magical Hotch, Rio Quattro is the choice to chase him home.
Win:3 F/C: 3-2
HEAT 8
1 Jaytee Berlin
2 Teds Last
3 Holdem Bernado
4 Milwards Davy (m)
5 Old Joe Golden (w)
6 Ballymac Cathal (w)
2 Teds Last
3 Holdem Bernado
4 Milwards Davy (m)
5 Old Joe Golden (w)
6 Ballymac Cathal (w)
Flying pup Teds Last can land the last! |
We can relax for the final heat without an Irish representative
where Charlie Lister’s impressive youngster Teds Last is sure to be all the
rage. The draw has worked out perfectly with a slow starter on his inner and
the pup has a clear cut opportunity to enhance his reputation even further by
commanding the rails very early in proceedings.
The heat is extremely
competitive otherwise with a generous sprinkling of early pace in the traps
outside Ted and predicting what follows him around is not straight forward.
Having been denied the lead by Teds Last they may all be scrambling for the
third spot as the heat sets up well for Jaytee Berlin to sneak around on the
rails for a strong back-straight challenge and he is the choice for the
forecast.
Win:2 F/C: 2-1
**All heats previewed without benefit of bookmakers prices to eliminate the possibility of prejudice on price grounds!
WILLIAM 2015 ENGLISH GREYHOUND DERBY
WIMBLEDON SATURDAY JUNE 6th
ROUND 2 HEATS 9-16
HEAT 9
1 Barefoot
Artist
2 Dusktilldawn
3 Newinn Yolo
4 Lenson Tiggy (m)
5 Clares Wonder (w)
6 Baile Mhic (w)
2 Dusktilldawn
3 Newinn Yolo
4 Lenson Tiggy (m)
5 Clares Wonder (w)
6 Baile Mhic (w)
Three Irish this heat and while all have solid claims to
progress, it is highly likely that we will lose at least one with the presence
of what appears the leading English trained hope Newinn Yolo sure to prove a
big stumbling block. Leading our charge here should be Clares Wonder after a
pleasing round 1 win with a lightning split. A repeat of that form will see him
race prominently throughout and it would be a surprise if he did not make a
qualifying place at the minimum. Should Clares Wonder run to that opening round
form, Liam Dowling’s Baile Mhic would have a huge task on his paws to gain a
run as there is a wealth of early pace inside the Holland runner which may see a
few of these get very tight at the first bend. Baile Mhic must keep a wide line
at the turn and hopefully follow Clares Wonder into the back-straight on the
outside of any potential trouble if he is to have reasonable claims of
progression.
Newinn Yolo is UK's leading hope! |
Nothing will come easy for Barefoot Artist on the inside
either and it will be crucial that he starts well enough to defend the rails
against Dusktildawn. A recent 4.99 trial split from the squeeze box must be
lowered if he is to sneak a run to utilise his classy middle pace for a
qualifying place. Supporters of Newinn Yolo will also be looking at this heat and
thinking that the impressive tracker could have found a more straight forward
heat as there is danger for him, even from trap rise. Lenson Tiggy is a smart
trapper with good early pace who if led by Clares Wonder will not have room to
move right and therefore won’t be offering Yolo the freedom of Wimbledon on the
run-up. The big thing in Yolo’s favour is that he can probably gain a length on
the pair inside him and command the rails at the bend. If he does he will be
hard to repel, but that is his best case scenario and I would not like to be wading in
with folding money at the likely odds.
A fascinating heat that is best watched but Clares Wonder
could be another winner for Ireland if holding a full one length lead upon
turning the first bend. Overall it is too tough for me to call and the best
recommendation would probably be…
…3-5 R F/C
HEAT 10
Heat 10
1 Jaytee China
2 Coolavanny Gooch
3 Affane Scolari
4 Coolavanny Jap (m)
5 Magical Charles (w)
6 Tynwald Bish (w)
1 Jaytee China
2 Coolavanny Gooch
3 Affane Scolari
4 Coolavanny Jap (m)
5 Magical Charles (w)
6 Tynwald Bish (w)
Another highly competitive heat which on the face of it
looks wide open but I’ve been sweet on Coolavanny Jap for some time and he can
stamp his class on the Derby now having battled well to get here despite some
traffic last week. The application of a middle seed appears a natural step
given his tendency to move off the rails when drawn further in and with Magical
Charles on his outer, he should have ample wiggle room in the early strides
here. He can show pace up but can also be classed as a strong runner at this
trip. He is maturing into a more rounded race dog now but remains capable of
blistering times and he will take all the beating in this heat. Expect him to
be the most forward of the three seeded runners at the bend which may be enough
to secure victory as things may get tight on the inside.
Jap faces tough examination! |
Tynwald Bish ran with great credit in round 1 when chasing
home Leamaneigh Turbo after his bullet break and could do little more than his
solid 2nd when showing smart middle pace. He can be close to the
pace on the outer by leading Magical Charles early and could benefit greatly if
Jap sweeps the bend in front. This is a possible and likely scenario that would
give us real claims of getting both through but there are others to respect
here. Magical Charles will be flying late for his tricast bid and Afane Scolari
merits plenty of respect after pulling a minor shock in round 1. The biggest
threat to our two however is the brilliant bitch Jaytee China who was so
impressive last week after a poor start. She can come away much better than her
4.93 split, rails well and powers from the second bend. She is probably the
best drawn and must be afforded the utmost respect.
Win:4 C T/C: 4-6-1
HEAT 11
1 Go Ahead
2 Quietly
3 Sidarian Blaze
4 Making Paper (m)
5 Save The Don (m)
6 Swift Perth (w)
2 Quietly
3 Sidarian Blaze
4 Making Paper (m)
5 Save The Don (m)
6 Swift Perth (w)
Paschal Taggart will be cheering home Save The Don! |
Worst case scenario here with four Irish in the same heat
but I genuinely believe we can get three through. We have starters in here who can
all ensure their qualification in the first few strides as all have draws that
can afford each other a run. We know Quietly will lead Go Ahead from traps and
quickly be in charge of the rails position. Sidarian Blaze can be next in line
behind him, on the inside at least and he is fully expected to contain Making
Paper on the run-up as is Save The Don. What a wonderful training performance
Fraser Black has produced to get him ready for the Derby having been injured in
the Scottish version just a few weeks ago. Provided he contains Swift Perth in
the early exchanges, this heat will be all about the Irish runners.
C T/C 3-5-2
HEAT 12
1 Ascot Woodie
2 Kentish Kane
3 Droopys Ward
4 Geelo Vegas (m)
5 American Werewolf (m)
6 Adageo Bob (w)
2 Kentish Kane
3 Droopys Ward
4 Geelo Vegas (m)
5 American Werewolf (m)
6 Adageo Bob (w)
No Irish here and last year’s runner-up Droopys Ward will be
all the rage after what must be labelled a wonderful opening round win when
displaying all the stamina and track craft which brought that deep 2014 run. He
is likely to be a short priced favourite and probably deserves to be but his
racing style means that big punts can never be confidently advised. That
applies here as there is some plausible opposition to him, if difficult to
accurately predict. He is likely to be led on his inside, if not by Kentish
Kane then certainly by Ascot Woodie who returned a thoroughly respectable win
last week. Geelo Vegas should also be turning into the turn with his tail
flashing across Droopys nose and we must also respect the fast, if albeit rare start
made by Adageo Bob last week.
Droopys Ward(3) crossing the line in 2nd last year |
The big complication for Droopy could come in the shape of
strong running Kentish Man for if he turns into the back-straight ahead of the
favourite he would post stubborn resistance throughout and could be a blocker all
the way to the line. That is worst case scenario for Droopy, he could of course
turn with a handy pitch and have the heat settled before the closing bend just
as easily but for a bet, there are too many possible scenarios and if I was
forced to choose I would opt for Ascot Woodie to command the rails all round
and take his chances from the front where a repeat of his 28.58 could see him
home if there was a bump or two behind.
Verdict: No Bet
HEAT 13
1 Gaytime Hawk
2 On Alert
3 Bellmore Neymar
4 Balymac Loch (m)
5 Fairy Prince (m)
6 Dragon Big Bux (w)
2 On Alert
3 Bellmore Neymar
4 Balymac Loch (m)
5 Fairy Prince (m)
6 Dragon Big Bux (w)
A big heat for Ireland with the immensely promising Craig
Kelly youngster Bellmore Neymar and a potential Derby monster in Graham Holland’s
Gaytime Hawk. The latter produced a fantastic back-straight effort to land his
heat last week despite a poor pitch at the first bend and if handling the
cramped conditions of trap 1 now, has big claims to register another win. The
presence of On Alert here is concerning for both our runners as his performance
last week merits huge respect despite being collared late by Bellmore Neymar. A
brief glance at the splits will tell you that this is likely to get tight on
the run-up and none of the three already mention will give anything away on the
back-straight so in that case I would choose to be on the inside if a three way tussle
was to occur. So I’m with Gaytime Hawk!
The impressive Gaytime Hawk |
Bellmore Neymar has only raced twice now so he has to be
given all due credit for overhauling On Alert last time and of course it is
conceivable that he can improve for that. He appears quite adept at traps for
one so inexperienced and he has to be now to secure a run at the bend. If he
repels Ballymac Lough in the early strides he surely then must qualify with
anything like a clear run. The four inside traps should fill the tricast and
the furthest I’m prepared to stick my neck out is for a Gaytime Hawk win.
Win: 1
HEAT 14
1 Tinahue Pinto
2 Evanta Evita
3 Fireheight Tosh (m)
4 Bubbly Beauty (m)
5 Viking Jack (w)
6 Van Frankie (w)
2 Evanta Evita
3 Fireheight Tosh (m)
4 Bubbly Beauty (m)
5 Viking Jack (w)
6 Van Frankie (w)
Tinahue Pinto is our sole contender here and I fancy him to
land this heat on the back of his classy graduation to open racing when leading
Gaytime Hawk to the shadow of the post last week. We could get some value here
with a couple of home challengers that will be well fancied. Going through them
however i find myself knocking their credentials one by one. Fire Height Tosh
clocked 28.43 last week but did it with everything in his favour after a fast
start that even his most fervent supporter could not confidently say he will
repeat now.
Buckley has claims for a late Rd2 treble! |
Win: 1
HEAT 15
1 Paradise Maverik
2 Sparta Flame
3 Jetstream Sound (m)
4 Ballymac Sinbad (m)
5 Boyneside Fun (w)
6 Mash Mad Blackie (w)
2 Sparta Flame
3 Jetstream Sound (m)
4 Ballymac Sinbad (m)
5 Boyneside Fun (w)
6 Mash Mad Blackie (w)
Lots of early pace in this heat but it’s all from the
English runners and that can play nicely into the paws of our Cesarewitch
Champion Paradise Maverick. He is not a slouch in the early yards but he won’t
be leading any of these heats at the first bend either and in this particular case
that looks ideal. He might not break from trap 1 and there should be no need to
panic if that’s the case. All he need do here is stick close to the rails and he
will possess way too much class to get eliminated.
Cesarewitch Champ Paradise Maverick |
Verdict: No Bet
HEAT 16
1 Ibiza Rocks
2 Beaming Bucko
3 Here We Go (m)
4 Blonde Nipper (m)
5 King Alley (w)
6 Baliff Hubert (w)
2 Beaming Bucko
3 Here We Go (m)
4 Blonde Nipper (m)
5 King Alley (w)
6 Baliff Hubert (w)
Buckley is straight back into battle here with Beaming Bucko
and last week’s victory was a real tonic for this fellow as there was a look of
inconsistency about the youngster entering the Derby. That of course is
something that can come in due course but there is highly plausible claims to
build on that win right now as the draw appears to offer him a rails run on the
tail of fast starter Ibiza Rocks. Should both reproduce their respective starts
from last week Bucko should repel Here We Go and receive a nice tow into the
back-straight to mount a serious challenge. King Dec looks set to dominate on
the outside and he along with Ibiza Rocks should contest the lead off the
second turn. Position will be key in behind them and Bucko looks the most
likely to be next in line even though Blonde Nipper merits big respect. Both he
and Here We Go can arrive with a bit of a rattle at the closing bends but
sticking to the rail, the Buckley runner should not be passed by these two and
it should just be a matter of whether he can pick off the leaders for the win. A
tight affair overall, I would probably leave it alone as regards punting.
Verdict: No Bet
WILLIAM HILL 2015 ENGLISH GREYHOUND DERBY
SATURDAY MAY 30th HEATS 36-48
HEAT 36
No Irish in the opener and this heat appears to be all about
Eden The Kid in trap 3. A pleasing set of trials at Wimbledon culminated in a
slick 28.23 last time and we can ease into a busy night of action with no
investment here as he is sure to be way too short. The only conceivable danger
is Westmead Alexis(2) who can quickly grab the rails on the run-up but his
resistance to the jolly should not last beyond the second turn in what looks a
straight forward, straight-forecast!
F/C 3-2
HEAT 37
Another all English affair here and thankfully with much
greater depth than the opener even if still below what we would hope for. The
big disappointment looking at this heat is the failure of Bubbly Zeus to
reproduce his excellent Shelbourne form since moving to the UK. His smart
trapping, early paced style that brought seven straight wins in a glorious
career start was a joy to behold. Now he is plodding around Wimbledon in
trials, scraping under 29.00 with splits that are just beneath him. The latest 5.08
was miserable and ok, he pecked on his first stride but his best of 4.87 is
hardly up to his consistent 2.00 and less at Dublin. What a prospect he could
have been in this Derby but that just does not look on right now. There isn’t
all that much early pace on show other than Zeus and the best the others will
manage is about 28.60 so Zeus could still convert against an exposed bunch of
strong running types who are probably headed by Viking Jack(6) but this is a no
bet race where I will just hope to see a “Bubbly Blast Off”…..for old time’s
sake!
Verdict: No Bet
HEAT 38
Tynwald can bring a winner for Cronin! |
Our first representative of the night comes in the shape of
Peter Cronin’s Tynwald Bish(5) and he can kick start the Saturday onslaught
with a trap to line victory. He was unlucky in Scottish Derby semi after a
round one heat win and handled Wimbledon well enough last year in a hot puppy
stake. He can repel Kakantu(6) in the early exchanges and even a repeat of
Leamaneigh Turbo’s recent fast sprint form would not inconvenience all that
much as he would prove a generous tour guide before Bish takes over on the
back-straight. The best home hope may be Aero Babooshka(2). A solid open
performer he can show pace all round and would be form choice to chase Bish
home.
Win: 5 F/C: 5-2
HEAT 39
Another break for the Irish here in a heat that will be all
about Kentish Man in trap 2 as an open race winner here with what is probably a
career best effort in his latest 28.40 solo. While he would fail to dominate
most heats in this or any Derby, with this particular draw he has found one of
the weaker offerings. Best of the rest is probably Barnish Panther but he can
not be accused of being in great form at present and the token selection for
the forecast is Wotnofizz in trap 6. He is strong enough at the trip, can go up
fairly well and will chart a middle to wide course for a likely clear run.
Overall though this one is underwhelming!
Win: 2
HEAT 40
Liam Dowling with Vulturi |
Right, we’re back in action here with a monster! There isn’t
a race goer in Ireland that doesn’t look forward to watching Liam Dowling’s
Vulturi swallow ground on the back-straight against some of the best hounds in
training. A wonderfully genuine racer he has smart track craft and a resilient
finishing kick that can scare even the fastest clock busters. There isn’t a
buster in this heat but the home defences are stronger this time than in the
previous heats. That combined with Vulturi’s racing style means we’ll settle
for a qualifying place from the six runner heat and take the win graciously if
it comes. Charlie Lister’s Boyneside Fun is a big player from trap 6 and if
avoiding a collision with decent early pacer Ballymac Cathal(5) at the bend, he
could be the one Vulturi is eyeing up on the home-straight. The runners on
Vulturi’s immediate outside are similar sorts to himself, if well below his
class, and he may not face all that much opposition on the run-up. If turning
in second place, he would have plausible claims of hauling in the Lister leader
but that would be a tough task if Boyneside produced his 28.37 solo form. A
watching brief advised and just enjoy Vulturi’s back-straight prowess.
Verdict:
No Bet
Heat 41
Buckley may qualify another with Burgess Four |
We can consider ourselves unlucky here to have three runners
in what is a strong heat. Gratefully though they all have reasonable draws and
with the possible exception of Baliff Hubert(6), appear to be the best three
dogs in the race. Hopefully the bookies will rate Burgess Four on his debut 28.74
trial at Wimbledon for we all know that he will produce a far smarter run if
leading from trap 1 now. The Buckley charge is a formidable performer when on
the bunny and should be afforded a clear passage on the inner by his slower
starting compatriot in trap 2, Oakvale Rumble. Craig Kelly has already scored a
heat win this week and his strong running Puppy Derby semi-finalist is capable
of fast runs when securing racing room. He may get that now if slipstreaming
Burgess Four around the opening bends and he can be expected to make a bold
qualifying bid. Liam Dowling’s Bruno Ya Know occupies trap 4 and can show smart
pace throughout. There is an inconsistent look to his profile though and a good
break will be imperative to his chances. Expect the home charge to be led by
the afore mentioned Baliff Hubert as the smart sprinter looks set for a clean
run on the outer. He will post a solid 28.60 if getting around in front and
make our charges work for a round two spot but if Burgess breaks he can thwart
Baliff Hubert and drag Oakvale into the next round draw with him.
Win: 1 F/C:
1-2
HEAT 42
2014 runner-up Droopys Ward |
A big one for the home team here with 2014 runner-up Droopys
Ward the big fancy in a six runner heat with some depth of quality. A plumb
draw in trap 1 looks ideal for for the strong running favourite and he should
take all the beating. Lightly raced since his 2014 Irish Derby campaign, he has
been targeted at this and warmed up with highly pleasing trials the last twice.
Blonde Razor(2) on his outside will keep him company, or possibly lead him in
the early exchanges and is the most plausible threat but even his best run
would surely come unstuck before the fourth bend. Fire Height Tosh merits
respect with an open race win here but would require his very, very best.
Win:1
HEAT 43
Another all English heat here and it looks a very straight
forward opportunity for Badmoonrising to get his campaign started with a win. A
good draw in red can see him lead on the inside while main rival Soviet Kenny(5)
tries to plot his way through runners to mount a late challenge at the leader. Kenny
will find a gap at some stage and pass lesser lights for his qualifying place
but will most likely have too much ground to make up on the leader in what
appears a Nap forecast.
Win: 1 F/C: 1-5
HEAT 44
Blonde Nipper |
One Irish runner here in the lightly raced Brogan Harvey who
appears to have a big task on his paws to qualify. He could conceivably have
huge amounts of improvement to come in the future but would probably need some
of that to arrive right now! He will need to trap well with pace on either
side, especially from Blonde Nipper(3) who looks the main player here if
leading the two runners on his inside. He has impressive pace all round and is
in good current form. A comment that also applies to King Alley in trap 6. The
smart early pacer will give the selection plenty to do if leading into the
back-straight and these are the two to concentrate on while praying that Harvey
can produce a career best and give us something to cheer again for the in form
Buckley team.
Win: 3
HEAT 45
A leading Irish player here with Ian Reilly’s Puppy Derby
winner Quietly and if ever a dog fully met the perceived perfect Wimbledon
profile, it is this fellow. A fast trapper, he is a bullet to the bend when in
top form. He can improve on a moderate first trial at the circuit last time and
will prove hard to repel in a heat that has some smart runners for the home
team. As regards a early threat to Quietly’s lead, I am going to say that there
is none, he will lead up. Be Up Front in trap 6 gets the nod as the most likely
to be on his tail at the bend and the decent early pacer does see out the trip quite
well but having been denied the lead his effort may come a cropper on the
back-straight because there is two runners in the shape of Aero Inferno(2) and
Honest John(3) that can mount much more telling challenges down the back.
Honest John is a strong runner and the one we really don’t want to see in
second place too soon. He may be denied that by Aero Inferno, a lightly raced
type with solid pace throughout. His draw looks ideal to lead Honest John in
pursuit of Quietly with the rails to help and and these are the three to
concentrate on.
T/C 1-2-3
HEAT 46
Five decent sorts here for the home team but most definitely
headed by trap 1 runner Lenson Jed. He failed to bring his Sittingbourne form
to Wimbledon in two race defeats earlier this month but can lay that ghost now
on the back of two very decent trials an an ideal draw in red. He will be a short
enough price but we may squeeze a few bob out of the heat by including Droopys
Tramore(4) to follow him home. A strong runner he can negotiate his way through the
remaining runners to emerge second on the home run.
Win:1 F/C: 1-4
HEAT 47
Droopys Nidge |
Calling so many of these heats all English affairs is a bit
ironic when you have spent the last twelve months writing about them scorching
around Irish tracks for Irish breeders, owners and trainers but that said this
heat is another all English affair, Nudge
Nudge Nidge Nidge!
A one dog contest most likely, with outright favourite
Droopys Nidge(4) expected to come home in isolation. A few nice early paced
sorts inside him will be dismayed at his presence in the heat and one or two
may keep him in their sights for a short while. However, without being the best
early pacer in the Derby Nidge will still manage to shake them off fairly
swiftly and soon have this reduced to a solo trial. If the track is as good as
it was on Wednesday, the clock could go here for a Nidge solo in fast race
conditions is a recipe for fireworks.
Verdict: Small punt on the track record
to be broken! (if the early heat times merit it)
HEAT 48
A huge blow for the McKenna team here, having to withdraw
their Wimbledon record holder Firey Splendour and we are left cheering on
Fraser Black’s aptly named Save The Don(4). Predicting a performance from the Scottish Derby finalist is impossible though as it has been a struggle to
get him here after sustaining an injury at Shawfield. From an Irish point of
view this is a heat to sit and watch, hoping that he can perform close to his
best. For a punt, Calco Flyer(2) may be worth taking a chance with. Roxholme
Kid on his inner has a poor record from trap 1 and Flyer looks set for a run on
the inside. His sole look at Wimbledon was only a 28.78 trial win but he was
defeating Blonde Nipper in the process!
Win: 2
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
WILLIAM HILL 2015 ENGLISH GREYHOUND DERBY
FRIDAY MAY 29th Heats 23-35
HEAT 23
Teds Last is unexposed for Charlie Lister |
Two English will progress from a five runner heat with no
Irish here. The likely favourite is Charlie Lister’s twice raced pup Teds Last
who appears to have a bright future and his deut win form from Tralee was
franked when Lenson Premier scored on Wednesday. There will be many who won’t
want to oppose him but I will with the more experienced Taranis Bolt in trap 6.
He is no slouch early and can really power off the second bend with a clear
sight of the bunny. The pup will have to get everything right on the inside to
repel this fellow given a clear run.
Win: 6 F/C: 6-3
HEAT 24
Buckley Derby assault is well on track! |
Two Irish this time and we do have claims for the forecast,
but it will not be easy. Pat Buckley’s Blue Cafu looks our leading hope and he
has added a consistency at traps since his early days at Limerick in an
impressive and sustained graduation to the top flight. A powerful galloper, his
first look at Wimbledon could hardly have pleased more when clocking 28.56 in
last week’s trial and he gets the vote. Peter Cronin’s Salonika runs from trap
6 and Blue Cafu may dictate whether he qualifies or not for English runner
Sparta Flame(2) must be denied a first bend lead if we are to get both through.
A lack of experience at this level is a concern for the Cronin charge but a
strong runner he would most likely take second here if Blue Cafu was in charge
off the second turn. Sparta Flame does have proper early pace though and will
be tough to contain early and the sole recommendation is a Blue Cafu win.
Win:
1
HEAT 25
Pat Curtin can score with Deanridge Pennys |
Pat Curtin’s Deanridge Pennys is our sole representative
here and he has been in solid if not sparkling form at home in recent months.
However the trips across the pond seem to be doing him no harm whatsoever with
quality trials when firstly reeling in Quietly in 28.57 before posting 28.37 in
a defeat of Ivy Hill Bart. There is some depth of quality to this heat however
and victory will not come easy. From trap 3 he must match Millwards Katy(4) in
the early exchanges or risk a bumpy passage at the bend. The English bitch has
big early toe and is a highly talented sort. Further complication is the
presence of another early pacer, Evanta Fantasy with her ideal draw in trap 1
and this heat really could get tight at the bends. Still Deanridge Pennys, even
if not leading up, should hold too many guns down the back and secure another
Irish Victory.
Win: 3
HEAT 26
Barefoot Artist flies the Irish flag here and he is better
than the bare form of his latest Wimbledon defeat. That was his open
race debut when stepping up from A2 company for the first time and he can start
much better than he did on that occasion. The heat overall is not the hottest
on paper but is extremely competitive and difficult to adamantly break down.
The English will be all about the Guilfoyle bred Magical Hotch here and I can
readily recall being astounded by his back-straight pace in an early career
Thurles victory but they will sweat a little if they over invest as he is
unlikely to lead up. He will roll the dice for a safe passage to the
back-straight before delivering his challenge, so normally in this case you
would look for what is going to turn first but I’m afraid it will take a better
analyst than me to find that. I’m leaving this one alone and hoping that
Barefoot can qualify along with Magical for my neighbouring Guilfoyle’s.
Verdict: No Bet
HEAT 27
All English again here and at first glance you would almost
chalk this straight down as a win for Irish St Leger finalist Burgess Oscar but
he has just one race win since leaving Ireland and disappointed in his latest
trial. Things must have looked very sweet for his new connections when
inflicting defeat on Scottish Derby winner Swift Hoffman in his first Wimbledon
prep trial but an almost ten length reverse a week later tempers confidence
now, to say the least! He can not be backed with any sort of confidence here
but his presence may see some value about what looks a solid alternative in the
form of trap 6 runner See No Gamble. He can go well to the bend, is plenty
strong enough from the second bend to home and posted 28.39 here earlier this
month, he’ll do for me!
Win: 6
HEAT 28
Defending Champion Salad Dodger |
The home team are out in force again this time, led by
defending Champion Salad Dodger….and dodge he must do for qualification will
not come easy! Sweetened up with a solo at Romford, he looked in good shape for
his Derby campaign in solid trial runs at Wimbledon early this month. Housed in
trap 2 his problems are many and may manifest straight from trap rise. Inside
him is Jaytee Hawaii and while his finish times are not scary, he does go to
the bend. So too does Queen Asia(3) on his outer and the McNair bitch is still
on the upgrade with a rock solid trial here last week and the inside could get
messy with these three so close. That possibility of trouble on the inner makes
trap 6 runner Shotgun Harley the choice for victory. A strong runner at the
trip he is no slouch in the early strides, generally charts a middle to wide
course throughout and has much to recommend him with the make up of this
particular draw.
Win: 6
HEAT 29
No Irish again here and the home charge is led by Screen
Critic(6) who has been in reasonable form of late if somewhat below what
brought him a final appearance in 2013. The heat overall does not boast any
great strength in depth and I will be hoping Bubbly Beauty(5) can offer some value
from trap 5. She can trap faster than her latest trials and has done here in
the past. Expect El Lema to make a bold bid with his early pace from trap 3
which can give Bubbly a nice tow into the race off the second bend, making her
the safest option where a repeat of her early season 28.60 form
would surely suffice in a moderate heat.
Win: 5
HEAT 30
Easter Cup winner Sidarian Blaze |
There are a couple of nice types among the home contenders
here but we will not entertain defeat for our Easter Cup Champion Sidarian
Blaze in an ideal trap 1 draw. He can trap well enough to the defend the rails and
stamp his authority on the race with an emphatic back-straight surge, that’s
the plan and he will stick to it! Kippers Usain(3) and Mad Mash Blackie(6)
should fight out the second qualifying place with preference for the former who
ran with credit here last year.
Win: 1 F/C: 1-3
Heat 31
A full compliment of 6 this time and a tight squeeze if we
are to get our sole Irish runner Indigo Jack to the next round. In his favour
though is the likelihood that he can command the rails position throughout as
the usual fast starter is not surrounded by any great lid pingers! Ideally we
would want him in front down the back and left alone until turning into
the third bend for he will not being doing his best work coming home. The main
player in the race should be trap 6 Swift Whirlwind. A similar type to Jack is
arguably that little bit stronger coming home and will most likely start a
justifiable favourite. Hopefully this pair will run to plan and though there is
some staying form among the remaining runners, they would have trouble getting
up late with the expected 28.60 (or thereabouts) that the leaders are likely to
post.
R F/C: 2-6
HEAT 32
Ballymac Matt is our sole representative and what a
prodigious talent the Liam Dowling charge is. A gorgeous trial at this trip
last time does augur well for for his chances now, especially with a smart
sectional, something we see all too rarely and consistency is definitely the
chink in his armour at present. While he must be ruled out as an ante-post punt
on those grounds he is well capable of producing a stellar Wimbledon run and
this heat offers a plausible chance but the home team do merit much respect.
The once raced Bubbly Ninja looks a promising sort on trial form and appears to
have ample early pace to produce a forward bid on the rails but the big player
is Romany Rouge in trap 6. A strong runner with rock solid Monmore form he
trialed well here before a very respectable effort in a hot open race behind
Riverside Pat last time. A clear run on the outer here would make him hard to
contain. I still don’t believe he would handle Ballymac Matt if he was the one
to lead down the back, but will Matt break? It’s a head scratcher! The home
supporters really should have a cut at the 6 dog because from their point of
view they only have to worry about Matt breaking but for me I’ll leave it alone
and just cheer home a Dowling winner…..hopefully!
Verdict: No Bet
Heat 33
Peter Cronin may pull a FAST one! |
Another heat where predicting what the Irish will do is
difficult. We have two, Go Ahead for Buckley and a cheeky looking entry in the
form of twice raced sprinter Dungill Rocket for Peter Cronin. One thing we can
predict is that Go Ahead(3) will not lead up but he will fly at whatever does
with a big challenge from halfway. The ideal scenario would be to have him
chasing Dungill Rocket at that point and in a heat without any real strength in
depth, it might be possible. He has won graded sprints at home and won them
well enough but arrives to the first round as the most unexposed runner in the
Derby with only his very first qualifying trial at four bends giving any
indication as to his credentials. The canny Cronin has given him two more
sprints at Wimbledon in preparation, leaving us even more in the dark! However
the latest sprint was sizzling and a reproduction of that now would surely see
him lead to the third bend. What happens from there only Peter Cronin knows but
I’m willing to risk that we see something quite saucy from the July ’13 youngster
and I’m thinking Nap material. Win: 6 F/C: 6-3
HEAT 34
Scottish Derby winner Swift Hoffman |
The Scottish Derby winner Swift Hoffman(5) will garner much
support and hopefully take most of the limelight ahead of this heat to make
Sidarian Vega(2) an attractive price. Yes Hoffman is a huge Derby player with
his usual decent breaks, solid early pace and ability to maintain a strong
gallop all the way to the line. He posted 28.28 in his latest trial and also
defeated Bellmore Neymar (who scored on Wednesday) in 28.46 earlier in the month.
With all that said however I still say he won’t contain Vega if the flying
Holland youngster breaks! Learning his trade in an exceptionally hot Tralee
Juvenile, he signed off on that stake win with a simply brilliant 28.08. He
would have to be a working man’s price, for we must respect the fact that he
needs to trap and this is the first time he has been in the 480m boxes but if
he does, Hoffman would need even more luck than he got against the Paddies at
Shawfield.
Win: 2 F/C: 2-6
HEAT 35
Global Chariot is the sole Irish runner in the closing heat
and he has a tough task on his paws. Boozed Miranda(6) looks sure to go off
favourite here and justifiably so. She is a smart early pacer with rock solid
open form, most particularly at Poole and Swindon. Unplaced here two weeks ago,
she can fare better now with a highly likely lead on the outside and expect her
to post a reasonable time that the others are just not capable of catching her
in. Ibiza Rocks is probably the most likely to chase her home with a good draw
in red while Global Chariot will need his best break to claim the second spot
from him.
Win: 6
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
WILLIAM HILL ENGLISH GREYHOUND DERBY 2015
A cracking opening night of action on Wednesday and I'm sure I'm suffering withdrawals even before bedtime. The advised treble came a cropper unfortunately but I got out late on with the Jaytee Jet/Ring Ben double. Hope you fared better and the homework is already done for Thursday, bring it on and up our side!
Round 1 heats 11-22 Thursday May 28th
Heat 11
Holland can get Irish off to a flyer! |
A nightmare draw from an Irish perspective where at least 2
from our Derby platoon will fall victim to the unforgiving opening round
shootout. Strong fancy to dodge the bullets however is Graham Holland’s Gaytime
Hawk. An impressive and powerful galloper he needs just the merest semblance of
racing room to quickly show his high class pace which can match up with the
very best in the sport. His draw in trap 2 is no inconvenience to him on it’s
own but not the fastest breaker of all time there is the possibility that
things can get a little tight for him on the run-up. However, provided he
avoids a major collision, he will prove too strong here. Paul Hennessy runs
Kilara Hey Mac(3) who must better his recent home form to qualify and Budgie
Bypass(6) appears his best chance of a qualifier but he really will need his best
start to get a run ahead of sole English runner Face The Blade(4) who it must
be conceded has very plausible claims to progress here. A repeat of his recent
trial form will see him lead on the outer and as much as pains me to admit, can
deny the remaining runners the second spot, possibly at the chief expense of
Pat Buckley’s pup Tinahue Pinto. A smart trapper with early pace, he has a good
draw in red and looks likely to make a bold show but with Gaytime Hawk sure to
be on his case quickly, he has a huge task on his hands. Win: 2 F/C: 2-4
Heat 12
No Irish here but all on these shores will
surely be wishing the ex Peter Cronin runner Metro Jack a safe passage again
this time around having entertained so well in a deep run to the semi-final last
year. Trap 1 and a return to Wimbledon looks right up his street and he will be
a threat to all if sneaking around unscathed at the bend for his usual power
packed finish. Not in the form of his life at present however we may look
elsewhere for the winner and that is likely to be Lenson Twiggy from trap 4.
They love this fellow in the UK and he looks a real Wimbledon sort. A good
trapper with early pace he can start his campaign with a win by denying
Glenpadden Lord(3) the lead to skip clear off the second bend. Expect Iceman
Frank(6) with the freedom of the outside to follow him around and a repeat of
his latest trial win may be enough to claim second on the grounds that he is in
better current form than Metro Jack.
Win:4 F/C: 4-6
Win:4 F/C: 4-6
Heat 13
Liam Dowling trains Baile Mhic |
Just the sole Irish runner here and what a talented sort he
is, if a little frustrating. Liam Dowling’s Baile Mhic is still struggling to
add consistency to his undoubted speed and is hard to recommend as a punting
option. However, if he could somehow get on the bunny he is capable of
blistering clocks as he showed in the Laurels at Cork. How it would please Liam
Dowling to see a home-bred son of Ballymac Vic follow in the great sires paw
prints and thrill the Wimbledon crowd with a brilliant run…..here’s hoping! The
home team may believe they have the answer here through Rafas Wee Jet in trap 1
following decent trials the last twice. They could pay dearly if they over
invest however because those trials were a vast improvement on his race efforts
here a few weeks back and he could conceivably be hassled by his trap 2 rival
on the run-up. Trap 3 runner Lemon Laveer merits plenty of respect in a heat
without huge depth and he will mount a strong challenge from the second bend if
finding clear racing room. But myself, I’m going have my sneaky few bob on
Baile Mhic in the hope that the market shows him less respect than he deserves.
In terms of advice though, it should really be a no bet race!
Verdict: No Bet
Verdict: No Bet
Heat 14
Coolavanny Jap |
Win: 2 F/C: 2-1
Heat 15
An all English affair and not the strongest heat on paper.
Charlie Lister’s Romeo Ballistic(6) is lightly raced for his age but has got
his career going in the right direction. A smart early pacer he looks ideally
suited to Wimbledon and is definitely the one to keep on the right side of here
with two smart trials under his belt and the likelihood of racing room for a
first bend lead. He may have most to fear from Holdem Bernardo in trap 3 if
that rival outpaces the inside duo on the run-up but preference to fill the
forecast spot goes to trap 1 runner Blackstone Marco. A strong runner at this
trip, he rarely draws trap 1 but has six wins from his last six appearances in
red and though admittedly they did come at longer trips, it may pay greater
dividend to side with him to chase Romeo home.
Win: 6 F/C: 6-1
Win: 6 F/C: 6-1
Heat 16
Mckenna has another busy night ahead! |
Two Irish runners here and I am fearful for their chances.
Not on the grounds of ability for both Tynwald Rodney and Farloe Rumble are extremely
talented individuals with highly promising careers ahead. A heat winner in the
Scottish Derby, Rodney may well start favourite and would overall be the form
choice but from a punting point of view, he has worn red twice and been slow to
exit each time. If that is remedied tonight he wins, but a watching brief is
advised and hopefully he pops out and gives us more confidence going forward.
Owen McKenna’s Farloe Rumble scorched around Tralee in his first two starts,
leaving a great impression as a strong running type. However he still has a
green look about him in his transition to top grade company and this is a worry
now, both for him and Rodney beside him. I still believe these to be the two
most talented in the heat but a complicator as regards financial support behind
them is the presence of smart English runner Broadway Rival(5) who is well
drawn to lead on the outside for a bold qualification bid while Ballygibbon
King must also be respected after winning two heats in 2014, even if not in
that same form at present. If I was forced to have a bet I would chance that
Rodney can lay his trap 1 ghost and dominate, but I’ll just sit back and cheer
the Irish on in this heat.
Verdict: No Bet
Verdict: No Bet
Heat 17
Owen McKenna’s Go Django(5) is the sole Irish runner this
time but he has yet to surpass his impressive debut run at Tralee and being
bumped around in a prep race here last time won’t have helped. He is up against
it now but hopefully the application of his middle seed can aid his cause as
the two best runs of his career have come with the black jacket. A good start
will be needed as he is surrounded by some smart English runners with Blackrose
Vic(2) the choice for victory in what appears the best of the draw. He can
claim the rails on the run-up for a likely clear passage to the back-straight
with the strong runner fancied to prevail from this point. A plausible case can
be made for all runners but Old Joe Golden may be the one to claim second here
with a clear run on the outer as there is real a possibility that things will
get tight among the middle runners Glenpadden Bolt(3) and Making Paper(4).
Win: 2
Win: 2
Heat 18
Riverside Pat in victory at Wimbledon |
We won’t make money here but it will be a major shock if we
are not toasting a winner in the shape of Graham Holland’s Riverside Pat. You can
argue a case that Stay Loose in trap 2 has enough early pace to maybe pose a
threat to the bend but just a few strides of independent racing should see Pat
command the rails position and convert this highly plausible opportunity. That
same English runner is the main threat to thwart the Holland forecast in this
heat but that remains a strong possibility with Hoffs Nephew(3). A progressive
type with all round pace he takes a big step from A3 to contest his first open
race in the Derby but once Riverside Pat has denied Stay Loose the first bend
lead expect “the Hoff” to be rushing up on his outer to claim second place. I
could not sign off on this heat without a forward mention for Aero Nemisis in
trap 6 and although not in the form that saw him reach the semi-final’s last
year, he is still capable of pulling off an open race win if things were to
fall his way but remains vulnerable to younger improving types.
Win: 1
Win: 1
Heat 19
Ivy Hill Oscar pictured with Noel Hehir |
We are going to lose at least one Irish challenger this time
and maybe two with all three a little too close for comfort being housed in the
three inside boxes. We would have hoped for a more impressive trial last time
from Vans Viking when the inconsistent breaker came away fairly well. He can
improve on that however and is capable of blistering starts although they are
hard to predict. Beside him in trap 2 is Pat Curtin’s Ivy Hill Oscar who
himself rarely leads up but does possess good all round pace, if a touch below
the very best open racers. In trap 3 is Beaming Bucko and again the concern
here is that he is just not coming away well enough to secure himself clear
runs at the top level. All are capable of qualification but too hard to predict
as regards a punting recommendation. Here’s hoping they race independently of
each other and give us something to cheer. With the concerns about all three of
our raiders, English punters could be forgiven for regarding this as a big
chance for a glorious forecast over the Paddy trio as they will expect Fridays
Angel(5) and Dragon Big Bux(6) to lead our boys into the back-straight. Fridays
Angel has not found the finishing times worthy of backing this up however in
recent spins at Wimbledon, a comment that can also be applied to Dragon Big Bux.
The big early pacer is a poor trapper that can run out of steam after lung bursting
efforts to hit the front. The heat is too hard to predict but one of ours
should get through if not two and everything about this race screams no bet.
Verdict: No Bet
Verdict: No Bet
Heat 20
Rachel Holland & Clares Wonder |
Hopefully Graham Holland’s Clares Wonder(6) has gotten his
Wimbledon blip out of the way when bumped around after his poor break in a race
debut at the circuit on Saturday of last week. When he hits the ground running
from traps he can be scintillating and he must be labelled an Irish banker
here. The main threat is My Real Mutley(3) who can outpace the runners on his
inside for a clear passage on the rails and is most likely to follow Clares
Wonder home from the highly respected Bubbly Gold.
Win: 6 F/C: 6-3 T/C: 6-3-2
Win: 6 F/C: 6-3 T/C: 6-3-2
Heat 21
No Irish here and a tight affair between some talented sorts
which is not straight forward to figure out. Dolcino Rose looks to have the
best of the draw in the stripes. She will need to lead around the opening bends
to win but she can post some fast times despite racing wide and earns the vote.
Noirs Allen is the choice to chase her home. A strong running type when having
a clear view of the bunny, he has slower starting Jaytee Berlin on his inner
and although the early pace of trap 1 Aimnfire must be respected, should get
first run at the leader down the back and deny Jaytee Berlin a qualifying place
as he may find a blocker or two at the closing bends.
F/C: 6-3
F/C: 6-3
Heat 22
Another all English affair this is quite a hot heat where
some talented sorts will lose out. The battle for early supremacy on the inside
will prove key here and marginal preference is for Jaytee China(2) to just get
around in front from two smart sorts on either side. Thirteen Bags(3) looks
highly likely to be tracking her directly from trap rise and a clear run for
both could see an epic buckle throughout. The party pooper could well be
Southfield Jock(1) who himself can trap well with early pace but must get
everything right from traps now to defend his rails pitch.
Win: 2 F/C: 2-3
Win: 2 F/C: 2-3
Recommended Bets now available here: http://grgracing.blogspot.ie/p/tipping.html
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
William Hill English Greyhound Derby 2015 Wimbledon
Ok, if you are anything like me you will be glued to RPGTV
for the heats of the Derby with laptop in tow hoping to catch the good thing at
a working man’s price. In that case you will need your homework in order before
the usual smart advice of the RPG broadcast team either confirms or denies your
assertions. My homework will appear here for each night of action and will of
course have very much an Irish slant but pay good attention to the British
pundits for they know their home team as well as we think we know ours and
construct your strategy accordingly.
I’m holding off on a pre-competition investment for now (I think)
but having gone close in the past two years with each way ante-post bets on
Airlie Impact (2nd, backed at 150/1 through to 14/1) and Crokers
Champ (3rd, 25/1), I will be value hunting again very soon.
Find the race card on the Racing Post website here: http://www.racingpost.com/greyhounds/card.sd#resultDay=2015-05-27&meetingId=9 but also buy the paper and mark the card as the results and the races stick in your head much better when you have written them down, there's going to be a lot to take in!
First Round Heats 1-10 Wednesday May 27th
Heat 1
Irish Cesarewitch Champ Paradise Maverick |
Forecast 2-3
Heat 2
Peter Cronin with Crokers Champ |
Win: 1 F/C: 4-2
Heat 3
Slippery Fred should be short here with an ideal draw in
red. We would have hoped to see him build on his smart 28.57 trial run last
time but the bumping he got then should not repeat itself now. He need only
match Killmagner Mike in trap 3 (who has some smart sprint form) from traps to
secure a clear run and a back-straight lead. The second qualifying place looks
very much up for grabs here as Aclamon Messi is not arriving in the form that
he showed here last year so we may do worse than to take a punt on ex-irish
runner Magical Charles. An enigmatic sort, he has taken well enough to
Wimbledon in trials, will show strength from the second bend and won’t be
inconvenienced should Aclamon Messi(5) find his best breaking form.
Win: 1 F/C: 1-6
Heat 4
Newinn Yolo |
Verdict: No Bet
Heat 5
McKenna will hope Farloe can Blitz rivals in heat 5 |
Win: 3 F/C: 3-4
Heat 6
Nutter has ideal draw in trap 1 |
Win: 1 F/C 1-5
Heat 7
Hennessy on the Derby trail with smart pups! |
Win: 5 F/C: 5-1
T/C: 5-1-6
Heat 8
I’m not saying you need an Irish runner to make a good heat
but there is none in this and it does appear a weak heat on paper….!! Drumsna
Castle has some nice Towcester form in the book and he along with Sing Song Man
are the most consistent in the line-up. The formers latest solo effort does not
inspire too much confidence however and there is little to chose on form
between the better drawn Coolavanny Gooch in trap 1. The runner in the field
that could register a proper Derby clock is Ballymac Manix(4) but he needs to
get to the front early to achieve that and he can hardly be labelled a reliable
breaker. If you must have an investment, side with him but if you can get a
price on this to be the slowest heat of the night, take it!
Verdict: No Bet
Heat 9
On Alert has the form in the book! |
Win: 2 F/C:
2-1 T/C: 2-1-4
Heat 10
No Irish here but trap 1 runner Ring Ben has only just left
these shores after graduating to open company from his Kilkenny A3 win last
month and has claims in the heat on his smart trials after landing in the UK.
He can command the rails throughout and a clear run would bring a bold bid for
the strong runner who if hitting the front at any stage, will prove a tough nut
to crack! He has most to fear from Burnfoot Alpha(5) and more particularly the
strong running Diego Flight in the stripes. The latter is superbly consistent
and has form against the very best in Britain. Should he lead up, we may open
the gate but the possibility of a good start by Burnfoot Alpha brings with it a
chance that he may get held up for a stride or two at the bend which could
prove enough for Ben to prevail.
Win: 1 F/C: 1-6 T/C: 1-6-5
Recommended Bets will appear at this link http://grgracing.blogspot.ie/p/tipping.html
Recommended Bets will appear at this link http://grgracing.blogspot.ie/p/tipping.html
Not sure having a vacant trap alongside is as much a help as you suggest. Current set up of traps at Wimbledon pushes dogs wide from the traps. Since the change to the "old" side , five years ago , 53 blank traps , 22 wins for traps either side , 31 losses for traps either side.
ReplyDeleteLove the stats and very handy to have, thanks for that. However the comment about the vacant trap being a help was made in relation to Paradise Maverick who, if you watch his videos, is inclined to take a step to the right upon leaving traps. A free box on is outside is in my opinion an advantage in this case as from the point of view of my prediction for the race, it keeps him clear of his kennelmate inside and should give him the freedom to get up to speed quickly without suffering a bump. If i was to explain all that at time of writing i would not get the blog post up for the first round until the week of the final ha! So in essence, it was not a general assumption that a vacant trap is always a good thing but more an assertion that it was a good thing for this individual hound. Thanks for the comment, please feel free to comment away, stats like those will always be helpful!
ReplyDeleteGo Team Buckley
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely Flying Dave....They're going to give it some rattle!!
ReplyDelete