Greyhound racing is back on mainstream TV tonight with five
live races on RTE 2 from 8 pm for the semi-final programme in the 2018 Boylesports Irish Greyhound
Derby.
For me, this renewal houses arguably the greatest strength
in depth and the twelve that remain are out of the very top drawer. My only
outright investments were pre-competition and only a handy few bob lives on
with Crossfield Will but it remains so open that I haven’t considered donating
again.
For those who will however, there is still plenty of value
to be had with 4/1 the field on the sponsors board. Slippy Cian is a deserved
favourite and when you can still have Clonbrien Hero and Newhall Missile at 12’s,
many will be tempted. If I was going to recommend a punt, the unbeaten Clona
Blaze is attractive at 8/1.
TONIGHT’S SELECTIONS
DERBY SEMI-FINAL 1
An extremely complicated draw where the natural starting
point must be the Derby’s fastest early pacer Cabra Hurricane.
Rarely if ever has a runner reached the third bend as fast
as the Longford Derby hero and I’ve already written this week that time is
almost irrelevant for the Pat Guilfoyle speedster, within the confines of this
stake.
That might sound mad but to my mind, his Derby challenge is
more about just how big an advantage he can build to halfway before his stamina
limitations see rivals bearing down on him close home. He is in no way draw
dependent and as such, Trap 1 is perfectly fine now.
Or it is until you see his kennelmate drawn beside him.
Magical Bale will actively seek the rails whenever drawn away from the inside. Now,
sound logic could say that he is surely close enough in Trap 2 that he will run
fairly straight from the boxes. He might, even though I still believe he will
edge left, but the fact that Cabra Hurricane’s natural gallop when in full
flight would see him drift close to the line of Trap 3, this all adds up to a
very likely scenario where the Guilfoyle runners, at the very minimum race
perilously close and worse, bump!
Nobody, apart from their rivals, would wish for that,
however, it does bring a serious complication when contemplating a punt on either.
The ideal Guilfoyle scenario is Cabra finds a bullet break to avoid this
complication, leaving Bale to follow him around, just like the second round. However,
and with their horrid draw in mind, the wallet dictates that we must look
further out for a bet.
So nearly reeling-in the Hurricane last week, Jaytee Taylor displayed
a brave battling quality to match his obvious talents when recovering from
fourth place off the second bend. Having led-up in his previous heats, a question
was asked and Taylor answered.
Of course, the same question will be asked here and he will
be required to step up on last week’s effort, particularly on the run to the
bend. With a sharp Newhall Missile to his inner, it could be argued that he
will have plenty of room as that rival will not move outwards to meet him but
he must trap smartly to utilise the space or risk a powerful sweep across his
nose at the first bend from the early paced Clona Blaze to his outer.
The only remaining unbeaten runner in the Derby has quite literally
been paw perfect in four sublime heat victories and Shelbourne Park has truly
unlocked a potential that, hands up, I didn’t really see coming after his
Produce Stakes exit at third round stage.
I fully appreciated the early paced prowess which he had displayed
in his career start at Tralee and confirmed at Clonmel but I did think that 550
yards would be a stretch. How wrong that was! His quarter-final win when
outstaying Clonbrien Hero to the line was a performance from the very top
drawer and revealed a willing attitude.
I will now describe him as an early pacer who can stay 550
yards, because he wants to! And that comment is intended as testament to his
battling nature, while housing exceptional pace. He is perfectly drawn now in
Trap 6 and given the configuration of the heat must be the percentage choice.
So to the people’s dog of the 2018 Boylesports Irish Derby
and the past ten days following greyhound news has seen Newhall Missile give
all in the sport a real lift. It’s a story that has everything. A rank outsider
defying the odds, a trainer trying to emulate the classic winning achievements
of his dad from over thirty years ago and the one that captured hearts far n’
wide, a brave young owner exacting much needed joy from his canine sporting
hero who keeps delivering welcome relief form daily struggles with Spina
Bifida.
Joint owner of Newhall Missile, Colin Barry will spend what
is a rare night away from hospital in 2018 at Shelbourne Park on Saturday as
his condition has thankfully allowed this journey from Ennis. For those who
have yet to read the article which I was so proud to produce on Colin’s behalf,
can do so on the IGB Ownership page but what chance Colin can see Newhall
Missile advance to the final? Or even win the semi?
The short answer is every chance and with the story set
aside while bringing the form to the fore, any top owner would sign a sizeable
cheque if offered the opportunity to purchase, in advance of the Derby, a
runner would have won three of four heats and posted 29.44!
He traps well as a rule, has very decent early pace and sees
out every yard. He out-trapped Drive On Tipp a week ago and if the Guilfoyle
runners were to come together from their complicated draw, Newhall Missile
could again find himself in a forward position. Not a forlorn hope!
Overall, I’ll be hoping that Cabra Hurricane takes a flyer for
if he does, I believe it will give all runners in behind the opportunity to run
their race and may the best three on the night progress. However, in punting terms
it’s Clona Blaze to remain unbeaten.
DERBY SEMI-FINAL 2
It’s not supposed to be straightforward at this stage of the
Derby and it certainly will not be so for some highly touted contenders in the
second semi-final.
Predicting what will happen at trap rise forms the first
part of every analysis and any way I look at this heat, the only prediction of
any safety is that Totos Park will get a clear run on the outer…..and I’ll look
no further for the winner.
The star of the Graham Holland kennels, Clonbrien Hero has
nothing to prove in terms of class and has become almost an assumed qualifier
in any company at any track, so, passing him over in win terms is not a simple decision.
However, the draw is very complicated.
He himself can just miss the break a touch on the odd occasion
and he really wouldn’t want to now because Crossfield Will to his immediate
inner can go to the corner in a hurry while unpredictable at trap rise. Further
to the inner, Ballyanne Sim has an ideal draw in the context of this race
set-up. Now he hasn’t trapped at his best the last twice but he possesses
exceptional early pace and if controlling the inside, he puts the runners to
his immediate right in a world of hurt.
I don’t know what the kennels think but I have Slippy Cian at
the head of the Holland five that remain and given the quality amongst them, he
would have to be the superstar that he is developing into in order to say that.
It’s really only the very best early pacers who lead him to
a bend now that he has fully developed his racing skills and given freedom to
gallop, he would be the choice here every time. But it just appears that it is
easier to predict a bump than a clear run. In fairness though, bumps won’t
bother Cian who will dust himself off and fly from the 2nd bend. Whatever
position he occupies and however things pan out to the back-straight, I fully
expect him to advance.
There remains the possibility that Kilgraney Master could
really put it up to Totos Park in the early exchanges on the outside but in his
current form, it’s difficult to oppose the best housed Toto.
Myself and Barry Drake discussing the Derby Semis on CRY104 FM
HERE
DERBY PLATE SEMI 1
The quality of the Derby Plate only pays further testament
to the strength of the main event itself and although Borna Gin may be a short
priced favourite, the first semi-final is quite open if the Buckley runner is as
sluggish this week at trap rise as he was last.
He of course reeled in Buckos Dream then while also
impressively overhauling Crohane Ronnie late on, which is no easy task. As one
of the best in training, we know he can go faster than that 29.79 but unless
odds against, I’d rather watch him coming through traffic than sweat at every
corner.
It’s a no bet race for me as Gin has a complicated draw
which I find hard to predict and it could be the same two runners he is chasing
down the back as Crohane Ronnie and Buckos Dream are well housed on the flanks.
If I was going to suggest a sneaky fiver, I’d say risk
Skywalker Rafa. Blessed with early pace, he got it wrong from traps last week
but ran a cracker when appearing as good as ever despite defeat. If back in his
best breaking form, he could pup up again here at a price.
DERBY PLATE SEMI 2
With three first round winners, this is clearly a hot affair
and it looks set to be a saucy run to the bend amongst the outer traps.
I’m a Droopys Davy disciple, couldn’t be anything else
having been so immersed in the Kirby and there’s few in racing that possess his
genuine wow factor. You could type all day about his rivals here but as with
most races for Davy, if he gets it right, he wins.
This is a proper test but he appeared to be nearing his best
last week, albeit with more left in the tank I’d suggest. Maireads Spring won’t
give him anything easy on the outside and Gurteen Feather is a game as you like
while in brilliant form but keeping his middle path at the bend, I expect Davy
to take control with his slingshot into the back-straight.
RACE 5 AAO 550
Frisky Luck might be short enough here but the race
certainly does seem to set up well for the James Melia star.
Fast starts are rare from the respected Wichita to his immediate
inner, an assertion that can also apply to Clonbrien Prince so the favourite looks
very likely to lead on the outside. It could be a dice between Our Lovely Tune
and Howth Head for early supremacy on the inside and as is usual, the
entertaining Panther will probably have a wall of dogs in his path at the top
of the back-straight.
The latter can never be ruled out but should Frisky Luck
trap well and get the predicted clear run, he can prove too difficult to haul
back and is the logical selection. The biggest threat can be Clonbrien Prince
if he can find his best break for a forward position, as he can too fly from
the second turn.
