KIRBY Betting

Friday April 19th (final)

It took a long time for Ballymac Tas to reach the top of the 2019 Con & Annie Kirby Memorial betting market given that she was clearly the fastest runner of the opening rounds and now that she has occupied favouritism since before semi stage, her position seems to be becoming increasingly uneasy as we approach the final.

6/4 in initial quotes, both Boyles and Powers have eased her out with the latter more bold at 7/4. The reason for this is clearly the increasing realisation since the draw was announced that Herecomedahoney is ideally drawn to reverse semi-final form now.

3/1 earlier in the week, both firms now go 5/2 and you needn't shop around or wait for better because I would suggest that is as good as it will get. I can envisage confidence amongst his supporters growing as the final approaches and would expect plenty of money for him on track come Saturday evening.

A feature of the two markets below is that Boyles believe more firmly than Powers that the winner will come from the top 3 in the betting and as such are more value about the outsiders but both seem to be respectfully wary that there may be traffic amongst the likely leaders with neither allowing Antigua Rum to budge all week.

I think Tas can get the job done but would entertain any case for victory in regard to all runners. However, it's a no bet race for me (kind of) because I'm on Syd antepost. Still, I'll stick Tas in a couple of doubles or trebles because I have nothing banked yet...plus I want to reward myself for all this studying if at all possible!!

***BALLYMAC SYD WITHDRAWN***

Powers:
Ballymac Tas 7/4
Herecomesdahoney 5/2
Ballymac Syd 3/1 (Withdrawn)
Antigua Rum 6/1
Toolmaker Josie 7/1
Deadly Storm 8/1

Boyles:
Ballymac Tas 13/8
Herecomesdahoney 5/2
Ballymac Syd 11/4 (Withdrawn)
Antigua Rum 6/1
Deadly Storm 10/1
Toolmaker Josie 10/1

Saturday Selections

Paddy Powers have had the Open race events priced up since Thursday morning and it's not often we get a night at Limerick outside of the SIS programme where can get stuck in before commencement, so let's play!

NAP
Race 12 Trap 3 Newinn Shadow It's an oddly shaped heat with a bigger case for trouble on the outer than on the inside but although on the comeback trail, there have been times when Newinn Shadow looked the real deal. I think he'll run straight enough on the run to the bend from Trap 3 and although there is some viable opposition from smart Limerick regulars, anything approaching his best should suffice. 10/11

NB
RACE 1 TRAP 1 Patterdale Lena Fastest in both rounds, Trap 1 for the second week in a row looks ideal to defend the rails and although she can be tested by her kennelmate early doors, she came home in a very solid sectional last week which will make her very hard to contain. Her semi victim was finishing fast last week but I'd rather be backing Lena to get a lead again than banking on that rival to break better. 6/4.

RACE 3 TRAP 6 Blame The Game I don't like taking short prices in sprints but I was present or his latest trial spin at Limerick, which was not a fast night at the track, and it was scary good. It's a hot event with runners I am a big fan of but having confirmed his current form in victory at Dundalk in the interim, I saw enough to believe that he is probably 50/50 to win this and will take a chance at 1/1.

RACE 6 TRAP 1 Kilmacdonagh This is a tight semi-final in the Limerick Oaks but I was on her last week and she was so impressive from a complete opposite draw. Any class of an adept break to retain command of the rails upon turning would make 6/4 very attractive indeed.


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Thursday April 11th (Semi-final)

Semi Heat Guide Here   Q/Final Sectionals Here  Race Card Preview Here

Tas finally tops Kirby market
Well it took a while, but the fastest runner of the 2019 Kirby has finally made her way to the top of the outright market and Ballymac Tas fully deserves to be our favourite now.

3/1 in the Boyles market below, 10/3 can be found and given her draw in Trap 1 this week you have to tell any supporters to get on now for if she does score on Saturday, that kind of price will not be around for the final.

For those seeking value, I still believe that any of the twelve can conceivably win the Kirby and with each-way terms at 1/4 odds for the first three home in the final, could an each way punt on strong stayer Antigua Rum offer a free win bet in the final given that he must hold huge claims to run into a place in both semi and final? 12/1 with Boyles, he's as short as 8/1 in places with that very thinking in mind I'd suggest.

Also, the Garry Hannon "Deadly Duo" are both capable of leading in any heat. I'm sure those closest to the kennel believe that they could for instance lead the top three in the betting and it isn't much of  a stretch to believe you could have a halfway final leader with the likes of Deadly Storm in particular.

I know that's fanciful thinking but it attests to my own claims that this Kirby is still wide open and that I wouldn't scoff at whatever you fancy.

Looking at the heats individually, Ballymac Syd is going to be around 6/4 in the opener and readers will know that I'm on ante-post. Not needing to get involved, I was still hovering around looking for at least 6/4 last time but couldn't get more than 1/1 on the books, thank heavens, and his defeat last week earns him a watching brief now. Instead, I'll have a dig at Grangeview West at around 7/2 because apart from the fact that she is well capable, her draw on the fence looks entirely advantageous.

In the second semi, Ballymac Tas will also be around the 6/4 mark and in my opinion, this is a case of back her or have no bet. I would reckon that a repeat of her adept breaks should suffice for victory as I don;t think Toolmaker Me Dad can lead her up, or finish better than her.

Saturday NAP

Kirby Semi 2 - Ballymac Tas

NB

Kirby semi 1 - Grangeview West

Betting: Ballymac Tas 3/1, Toolmaker Me Dad 4/1, Ballymac Syd 4/1, Grangeview West 10/1, Tullig Footpad 10/1, Herecomesdahoney 12/1, Antigua Rum 12/1, Spoofer 12/1, Deadly Storm 14/1, Toolmaker Josie 16/1, Deadly Diamond 16/1, Rattling Conor 33/1.


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Friday Apr 5th (Quarter-final)

I'm not in the worst position ahead of the quarter-finals on Saturday with my outright selection of Ballymac Syd (16/1) still standing, and, with a chance! I have no need to look for another outright selection at this point but for anyone who is, there is plenty of value to be had I'd suggest.

In my own mind, I have only adamantly ruled out maybe two of the 24 that remain, that's how open I believe the Kirby still is and looking at the market, I would say that if you like one, back it now! Some very attractive prices will be slashed come semi-final time.

I'll start with my ante-post bet and if like me you're on at 16/1, I would be saying go again. He can still be backed at 10's in places! After a 28.07 spin and a brave battling display last week, he has shown in two runs that he has everything you could wish for in a competition punt. He is 5/4 to win his heat this week, which I think he will and if getting a clear run, another fast clock will have 10/1 a very distant memory. So I am going to invest again!

It might look a bit lopsided that Roverside Leo is favourite, given that there has been more than the odd runner faster than him in each round but that is more to do with the fact that bookies can already see him leading in the final. A long way off but his early pace would make you believe that and in fairness, if I was a bookie I would probably take the same line.

Toolmaker Me Dad deserves to be the price he is after two rock solid runs and what looks a very pleasing draw this week. I couldn't dissuade any who want to nibble at 6/1 and that comment applies to a host of other runners.

Ballymac Tas can in fact be found at 8/1 in places and that is absolutely massive for the fastest runner of the Kirby and especially because of those who can claim to rival her pace, she does appear to have a greater capacity to execute her best race.

Honestly so many look attractive right now. Take Killer Bee for instance. In my mind at present, I have decided on five survivors who I believe are either already, or will be, true superstars and he is one of those. He has twice shown that he can get the job done in competition finals. 12/1 with Boyles, 14's is in fact available, unreal value in my opinion. Factored into that price will be his tough draw this week but if you're a supporter, you simply have to get on now!

Staying abilities have always proved valuable at Limerick and Killer Bee certainly has them and with each way terms at 1/4 odds the first four home, the likes of Redzer Ardfert, who can be got at 33/1, is big value. He will be flying late for qualification contention each night and should he reach the final, I would suggest your each way part is a banker while retaining a saucy win bet at a big price. The same argument applies to Antigua Rum.

After Saturday, so much of the value that exists now will be gone, so if you're a punter, pick your fancy and go to town on it now!

Saturday Nap
Ballymac Syd Heat 3 5/4 (approx)

Boyles Betting: Riverside Leo 11/2, Toolmaker Me Dad 6/1, Ballymac Tas 7/1, Ballymac Syd 8/1, Killer Bee 12/1, Mucky Brae 12/1, Cabra Firmino 14/1, Spoofer 14/1, Grangeview West 16/1, Herecomesdahoney 16/1, Cuore Di Ferro 16/1, Tullig Footpad 16/1, Worseforwear 16/1, Deadly Diamond 16/1, Skywalker Wonder 16/1, Deadly Storm 16/1, Winetavern Don 20/1, Antigua Rum 20/1, Toolmaker Josie 25/1, Argentina 25/1, Redzer Ardfert 25/1, Jirano Classic 33/1, Rattling Conor 33/1, all quoted.


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Friday March 29th (Round 2)

No surprise to see a shake-up in the market after the opening round of the 2019 Con & Annie Kirby Memorial and not much sign of a mistake on the bookies part but still a few interesting musings before we get the action going in Round Two.

Riverside Leo has been shortened from 9's into 6/1 and fair enough, he is the fastest early pacer. However, examination of our sectional review Here reveals a finishing split last week that should be a concern for anyone taking that short price. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he can lower his finish split but I would suggest that he will have to. If you are on already, that is the one aspect that you would like him to improve this week.

Others like Toolmaker, Syd and Tas have naturally been snipped and all would warrant support should they be your choice but I find it a little interesting that they have eased Tullig Footpad out to 12/1 from 9's. Myself, I was very impressed with him in victory last week and I wonder are the bookies omitting to factor in that Thursday's going was slower than Saturday's?

Another one to drift is Spoofer and I do find this quite surprising. Yeah he was beaten after poking his head in front off the final bend but it was a bump affected time, he had done an awful lot of running to get to Deadly Storm and he had his worst draw out in Trap 6. He has a real buckle on his paws this week but I did not think that last week's showing merited a drift in the market and I'd be telling anyone who fancied him at 12/1 to go again at 16's.

There was a nibble at Mucky Brae last week and look where he is now, 12's form 50's! A similar story with Glengar Mac, early support justified and he is in to 14/1 from 40's.

The rest is pretty much what you would expect but anyone, anyone?...who did give El Favor a second look after I put him up as a Hail Mary outsider last week, would have been fairly impressed with his performance? He hasn't budged from 40's and the way he came home last week will make him very difficult to eliminate. I might have another nibble for the craic!

Of my two against the field before commencement, I lost one but the other was Ballymac Syd......and I'm hardly going to go back on that now! #Whooosh

Betting ahead of Rd 2, all quoted.

Riverside Leo
10/1,9/1
6/1
Toolmaker Me Dad
12/1
8/1
Ballymac Syd
16/1,10/1
8/1
Ballymac Tas
16/1
8/1
Tullig Footpad
10/1,9/1
12/1
Mucky Brae
50/1,33/1,14/1
12/1
Killer Bee
14/1,12/1
14/1
Cabra Firmino
16/1
14/1
Glengar Mac
40/1,25/1,20/1
14/1
Cuore Di Ferro
25/1,20/1
16/1
Spoofer
12/1
16/1
Manuka Man
20/1
16/1
Worseforwear
25/1,20/1
16/1
Deadly Diamond
33/1,20/1
16/1
Deadly Storm
16/1
Sure Look Listen
25/1
20/1
Skywalker Wonder
16/1
20/1
Rattling Conor
25/1
Redzer Ardfert
40/1
25/1
Argentina
20/1
25/1
Grangeview West
50/1
25/1
Winetavern Don
25/1
Camps Star
33/1
Droopys Danny
33/1
Ballydoyle Valor
25/1
33/1
Claregalway Lad
33/1
Herecomesdahoney
40/1
Droopys Sim
40/1
Vigorous Luke
25/1
40/1
El Favor
40/1
Jirano Classic
40/1
Antigua Rum
33/1
40/1
Laughil Josh
40/1
50/1
Toolmaker Josie
50/1
Milking It
50/1
Boherna King
50/1
Jaytee General
66/1
Toast Of Cabra
66/1
Likely Gift
66/1
Ardmulchan
66/1
Smart Bolt
50/1
66/1
Adis Abebba
40/1
66/1
Killahan Wonder
66/1
West Tip
66/1
Izzys Legend
50/1
66/1
Garrai Rua
100/1
66/1
Great Eastern
100/1
Burren Ripple
100/1

Saturday March 23rd (Round 1)

So before we get any further into the 2019 Con & Annie Kirby Memorial action, I better nail my colours to the mast ahead of the Saturday heats with my two against the field.

Short n` sweet, they are Ballymac Syd and Burgess Bucks. The latter is reported none the worse for his fall in the Juvenile final at Tralee and I just believe that he is a certain future star, plus, he is in the right kennel in Kirby terms!!

With Liam Dowling's Ballymac Syd, I just think he is as rock solid as you could hope to go to war with in a Kirby when practically all the field are here on potential at such tender ages. He showed pace at all points of the circuit in a quality Juvenile campaign at Tralee and he gives the impression that you'd need a sniper at the first bend to keep him out of the places.

As you can see from the Boylesports betting below, there has clearly been money for Burgess Bucks since the market opened early on Thursday and the kennel confidence must be high, as it should be, with both Burgess Doc & Glengar Mac also shortened. Interesting!

Of the handful of others that have attracted money, you can understand why being the likes of Riverside Leo and Cabra Firmino but going through the list, one I like for the fiver each way is El Favor at 40/1.

BETTING

Burgess Bucks

12/1, 10/1, 9/1

8/1

Tullig Footpad

10/1

9/1

Riverside Leo

10/1

9/1

Toolmaker Me Dad

12/1

Spoofer

12/1

Toolmaker Daddy

12/1

Killer Bee

14/1

12/1

Tree Top Danny

14/1

Cabra Firmino

16/1

14/1

Deadly Diamond

33/1, 20/1

16/1

Skywalker Wonder

16/1

Deadly Storm

16/1

Ballymac Tas

16/1

Ballymac Syd

16/1

Sure Look Listen

25/1

20/1

Worseforwear

25/1

20/1

Argentina

20/1

Cuore Di Ferro

25/1

20/1

Manuka Man

20/1

Glengar Mac

40/1,25/1

20/1

Burgess Doc

33/1

20/1

Riverside Larry

25/1

Rattling Conor

25/1

Ballydoyle Valor

25/1

Vigorous Luke

25/1

Winetavern Don

25/1

Antigua Rum

33/1

Cabra Nifty

33/1

Claregalway Lad

33/1

Lebudgiesmuggler

33/1

Skywalker Jorge

33/1

Camps Star

33/1

Droopys Boss

40/1

33/1

Alien Sea

33/1

Droopys Danny

33/1

Boynepark Woods

33/1

El Favor

40/1

Adis Abebba

40/1

Laughil Josh

40/1

Droopys Bee

40/1

El Juan

40/1

Herecomesdahoney

40/1

Spotted Wonder

40/1

Jirano Classic

40/1

Jaytee Churchill

40/1

Droopys Sim

40/1

Newry Rose

50/1

40/1

Redzer Ardfert

40/1

Grangeview Ten

50/1

Rising Gene

50/1

Toolmaker Gringo

50/1

Boherna King

50/1

Grangeview West

50/1

Hillview Paddy

50/1

Smart Bolt

50/1

Fantasy Ben

50/1

Izzys Legend

50/1

Luminous Milan

50/1

Toolmaker Josie

50/1

Milking It

50/1

Mucky Brae

50/1

Knight Prince

50/1

Bythewayjack

50/1

Bee Sharp

66/1

Sparta Emmy

66/1

Robbies Pappadum

66/1

Toast Of Cabra

66/1

Gettin Up

66/1

West Tip

66/1

Killahan Wonder

66/1

Ardmulchan

66/1

Keeperhill Ben

66/1

Garrai Rua

100/1

66/1

Restless Night

66/1

Jaytee General

66/1

Likely Gift

66/1

Monbeg Bakayoko

66/1

Dromrich Altair

100/1

Boherash Noah

100/1

Molinari

100/1

Burren Ripple

100/1

Great Eastern

100/1

Estimate

100/1

Freedom Tobago

150/1

Madams Rascal

150/1

Rallying Star

150/1

Killaheen Queen

150/1