KIRBY Splits Q/F

Quarter-final sectionals

They say three into two won’t go but in the quarter-final heats of the 2019 Con & Annie Kirby Memorial at Limerick on Saturday, it was more a case of six into three will not go as a dramatic session of quarter-final heats saw supremely talented youngsters scrambling for precious qualifying places where victory became irrelevant while desperately seeking to keep Kirby dreams alive.

You could throw any amount of adjectives at a report on Saturday’s action but I’ve settled on brutal for it was quite scary as simply a racing fan to see this cast of stars thundering into a first bend when you knew that something had to give and that proper outright fancies were certain to be eliminated.

Aside from being capable of posting blistering clocks, it was the depth of talent amongst this cast of 2019 which ensured that this event was the most competitive of a seven year Kirby history and it was always going to reach a stage where some would simply have to cede. At quarter-final stage, we reached our pinch-point!

With so many survivors bearing a similar racing style, we struggled to get accurate sectional times on many for the opening 300 yards this week but those in the early paced bracket had already signalled their abilities before Saturday. Many in that mode were eliminated but an interesting aspect which is revealed below is that we now have a clear “strongest stayer” to focus on as Antigua Rum clearly emphasised how beneficial his stamina can be in an event with so many doing it the opposite way!

Next best in the staying department is Ballymac Tas and you could only be impressed further by her battling performance to qualify from a treacherous position behind Herecomesdahoney in Heat 4. She remains the fastest of the event while enhancing her claims despite defeat and offered relief to Liam Dowling for there should be no Kirby report written this week without offering best wishes to his Cuore Di Ferro. 

Gratefully completing the circuit after a fall in the opening heat when facing a nightmare Trap 6 draw, he all but secured qualification before tumbling at halfway. A fate he did not deserve and hammered home the precarious nature of these quarter-finals for a relieved attendance as he made his way along the home-straight.

*As always, only the leader's numbers at the respective marks are set in stone while those behind are calculated but we have done this enough now to know that even when a touch off the mark, it really will be very minor. Remarks are offered to indicate that a particular sectional could have been faster with a clear run but again, use your judgement to assess how much any figure is affected and I would always assert that the figures here should be analysed while watching the videos to fully appreciate the splits in the context of how the race was run. Descending order from quarter-final on top in red to opening round on the bottom for each runner.

Heat 1 28.70
Deadly Diamond	16.22 bump 16.25 touch 16.62 ckd	12.48 12.57 12.36
Toolmaker Me Dad	16.58 bmp 16.15 16.10	12.22 12.21 12.17
Grangeview West	16.65 blk 16.12 16.00	12.33 12.44 12.25

You really have to hand it to this Michael O’Donovan winner who was made to battle for control of the rails at the opening bend. He needed to lead Toolmaker Me Dad to his inner for qualification hopes and even with a bump to his hinds on the run-up, he again displayed the early pace that keeps his realistic Kirby hopes alive.

Still without a completely clear passage to the 300 yard mark, it is fair to assume that he can pretty much match any of the field in the early part of the race. Excepting his better finishing split on the faster circuit for Round One, what the numbers do reveal is that his outright claims are polarised, in that he must reach the closing bends while in full command. 12.48 this week, and 12.57 a week earlier, won’t see him defend small halfway leads over many who remain to semi-final stage.

A first defeat for Toolmaker Me Dad and he simply wasn’t away well enough this time. Trainer Robert Gleeson had hinted that he wasn’t convinced his young star, although an inside seed, truly wants the red jacket but again, it came in handy this week for while reaching the bend on the inside of a line of four behind the leaders, he came off best from a bump when all but assured qualification at the top of the back-straight.

His poor start aside however, he does appear to be holding his form when you examine his finishing split. Three times now he has covered the closing 225 yards within five spots and they are the figures of a strong runner. He will hold claims in any company when front rank to halfway and the 300 yard figures he posted in the earlier rounds clearly show that he can be with the best to that point. Obviously still has a big say.

“We got the rub of the green tonight!” They were Michael Hogan’s words after his gutsy Grangeview West was the chief beneficiary following the fall of Coure Di Ferro. But she had earned that luck in her two brilliant opening successes and her performance here was a brave one, from a draw she really did not want.

Crowding and bumping saw her tail just about last at the crown of the bends and it was no mean feat to subsequently repel Winetavern Don on the run to the line. Back nearer her first round finishing split this week is encouraging and given her rails draw in the semi-finals, her figures from the previous rounds could well see her in the final if repeated.

Heat 2 28.54
Toolmaker Josie	16.28 ckd 16.34 touch 16.22 brush	12.26 12.55 12.33
Rattling Conor	16.52 ckd / bmp 16.36 ckd 16.57 ckd	12.44 12.52 ckd 12.26
Deadly Storm	16.58 crd / bmp 16.34 bmp 16.06	12.61 12.53 12.38 bmp

Another heat where the run to the bend was always going to be crucial and it worked in Josie’s favour that he was not amongst the leaders when reaching the corner. The concern here will be that he was essentially outpaced by three rivals on the run-up, but, only one of those managed to advance!

He was forced to check slightly before finding a gaping gap on the rails off the second turn but he was highly impressive thereafter. Overall, the figures suggest that he is in and around the 16.20 mark to 300 yards and with this being very close to a clear run, reveal that he is even paced throughout. Just like his kennel companion, that very respectable 12.26 finishing split says that he is taking the runs well and will give him every opportunity of converting if shading the lead beyond halfway but he will need draws to get the run with a few remaining that can lead him to the corner.

Mossie O’Connor’s Rattling Conor is developing an aura in the Kirby which almost exudes a defiant confidence in that they just can’t seem to knock him out. He has yet to find a clear run and we are in the dark as to what he could post for the opening 300 yards. He’ll have to trap and secure a path to show us at some point but what he has shown is flashes of real pace. He was crossed on the run-up here, bumped at the bend and was a bad fifth at the crown. Granted there was trouble for rivals ahead of him but once swinging off the second bend, he displayed a powerful turn of pace along the back-straight. Odd to assert after watching three rounds but he remains a little unexposed. A faster break however is going to be required…..and soon!

Michael O’Donovan managed to guide two through to semi-final stage from his team of four on Saturday and Gary Hannon won’t mind me reporting that he was beaming leaving Limerick as Deadly Storm delivered a second semi-finalist for the Bray owner. Storm was one of three first bend leaders here who raced in tight quarters while all impeding each other. 

Only fourth at halfway however, he battled gamely to qualify and he is another of the early pacers who retain the ability to dominate a heat when free to gallop the opening bends independently. I wouldn’t be over harsh on him for that 12.61 finish either because he has done better and had an awful amount of work done before reaching the closing stages this time. His Kirby plan is very simple, must lead and hang on!

Heat 3 28.39
Antigua Rum	16.41 crd 16.39 16.67 crd	11.98 12.19 ckd 11.98
Tullig Footpad	16.40 bmp 16.48 ckd 16.28	12.34 12.44 brush 12.35
Ballymac Syd	16.65 bmp 16.57 blk 15.93	12.14 12.33 crd 12.14

Simply not possessing the early pace of his rivals here, this heat fell just perfectly for the staying abilities of Tom O’Neill’s Antigua Rum. Sitting in a pocket behind the leaders having been tight for room on the approach, he ducked inward to cleverly find a run at the bends before delivering his powerful challenge on the outside from the second turn.

Up to this point, he was among a handful of runners capable of dipping under the 12.00 barrier coming home but with his fellow stayers losing out at quarter-final stage, notably Redzer Ardfert in this heat, he is now the strongest remaining in the event. We had noted here that his very solid 16.39 in Round Two was an ominous sign if indeed he could get the room to repeat it. His finishing kick will clearly convert victory every time he is front rank to halfway but that early figure is key.

With the heats being so competitive, and the semis likely to be the same, those capable of leading him are scrambling to execute their best race against similar types and as such are being forced to race in tight quarters. His lack of early dash in the context of this Kirby has now almost become an advantage and when considered that our fastest 300 yard split this week was 16.19, Antigua would be only three lengths behind approaching the third turn. No leader would want that and on a circuit that can prove very tiring over five rounds, Tom O’Neill has a challenger who is absolutely relishing the task.

Tullig Footpad ran here like he knew that the Pat Buckley dream of four in-a-row was resting solely with him. I’ve put bump after his opening split and while there was nothing obvious, I’m sure there was more than the odd touch as he competed in tight quarters to the back-straight. He showed smart pace to hit the front when swinging off the second bend and we know he can post faster figures. As with any of the early pacers in the quarters, he avoided a banana skin here but his 12.34 is respectable for an early paced runner and his Kirby task is simple from here on, he must return to his best breaking form and dictate for victories.

Liam Dowling could have been forgiven for thinking that his Kirby challenge was about to come to a crashing halt here as Ballymac Syd raced in last place at the crown of the bends when bumped upon turning. He again got himself out of trouble however with powerful back-straight pace before his confirmed strong running abilities secured qualification. 12.14 is very strong coming home and that seems to be his number. When added to his first round 15.93, that amounts to the figures of a classic winner so it is very straight forward from here, he simply must get back to the better break he showed in Round One because right now, he is struggling to implement his best race from Trap 6 as he is not showing enough on the run to the bend to clear the slick early pacers that remain.

Heat 4 28.30
Herecomesdahoney	16.19 16.24 16.45 brush	12.11 12.27 12.13
Spoofer	16.35 touch 16.18 16.17 ckd	12.16 12.32 12.28 bmp
Ballymac Tas	16.39 blk 16.10 16.01	12.13 12.13 11.96

On a night where the draw proved crucial, Herescomesdahoney had the best of it and he took full advantage when reaffirming his highly plausible Kirby credentials as the sole Graham Holland survivor.

The figures clearly indicate that he is growing within the event with his best splits both starting and finishing and, while not the fastest of the Kirby in either section, the sum total amounts to an even paced runner who when left to his own devices can be a classic contender in any company because has no weak point on any part of the circuit. Yes he has benefited from the red jacket in all three rounds but he broke very well here. You would naturally have concerns when drawn further out, which he will be this week, as many can go to the bend alongside him but his strength beyond halfway means that qualification is not dependent on leading. 12.11 will see him bearing down on many early pacers close home and if you weren’t convinced before this week, you must now be certain that he is a big Kirby player!

Philip Gough would probably have hoped for Spoofer to lead the winner on the inside here but it worked out quite alright when he didn’t. He essentially missed his break and we already know that his 300 yard figure can come down. Being on the rails, a minor brush at the first turn didn’t interrupt his gallop very much and what connections will be delighted to see is the improvement in his finish. Another for whom draws will be crucial and he will have to remedy this latest break. All in all, a very similar type of runner to the winner.

A first defeat for Ballymac Tas here but I suggested to Liam Dowling that she was as good as her opening round victory on Saturday, and I stand over that assertion. Edging left on the approach to the turn, she did remarkably well to keep her legs in what could have been a fateful bump at that point. She was devouring ground along the back-straight until forced to check behind Spoofer at the crown of the closing bends so her finishing split of 12.13 further emphasises her staying ability over 525 yards. She won’t want a draw like this again but this commentator will argue that she is still top dog in the Kirby with her better draw this week adding confidence to that claim.