Thursday Apr 11th (semi-final)
Betting Guide Here Q/Final Sectionals Here Race Card Preview Here
Having strongly suspected what lay ahead with a host of runners bearing an early paced racing style, last week's quarter-final session was quite frankly brutal as the Kirby axe unceremoniously wielded it's way through the round of 24 as our surviving semi-finalists were made to display far more than their obvious latent running abilities.
It was no place for the feint of heart and looking ahead to this coming Saturday, we are likely set for more of the same. Winning is irrelevant at this stage and even our outright favourite Ballymac Tas would gladly settle for another precious third place this week. However, I suspect that with kinder draws for our two remaining bitches, an impromptu "Ladies Night" could well be on the cards!
HEAT 1
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Battled bravely through traffic last week & rewarded with
plumb draw. Big claims if trap!
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Warming to Kirby task in smart wins last twice. Must trap in
tight draw but clear claims.
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Quality effort after poor start latest, retains big claim now
but must trap with pace inside.
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Smart early pacer battled bravely with bumps latest. T4 suits
& chance if win early battle.
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Without a heat win but gutsy in battling places. Yet to find
clear run, chance here if so?!
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Found bumps from moderate starts last twice. Sizzled in Rd1
though, player if well away.
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All survivors are going to have exact maximum value from any
perceived advantage at this stage of the event and the runner with most in her
favour going to traps here should be Grangeview
West. With so many of the remaining inside seeds bearing nigh on identical
racing styles, her pitch on the rails makes too much appeal to pass her over in
win terms.
She has trapped well in all three Kirby heats and a repeat
can see her defend a rails position that has proved hugely crucial to this
point, at almost every turn. It sounds a simpler task than it will ultimately
prove to be but I would suggest that defence of the rails to the back-straight
is all she requires to at least reach the final. If I have a win bet in the
race, it will be her.
In qualification terms, any of the six runners can
conceivably fill the trio so I’m going to be quite frank in making my trio
selection as straightforward as I can. Deadly
Storm has shown that middle draws by themselves are no hindrance to him and
although in a similar situation to last week with early pace all around, he did
outpace Toolmaker Josie to the bend and I’ll back him to do the same now which
can see him front rank with Grangeview to halfway.
The efforts of Spoofer after what was essentially a missed
break last time were hugely laudable and he really did confirm that he was
still a big Kirby player, but, he simply can’t afford another break like that
and with pace either side now, his position looks precarious.
I’ve already quipped that this field can’t manage to
eliminate Rattling Conor who keeps finding ways to advance in the face of
bumping each round and he certainly has the pace to upset these if finding
clear passage but my trio will be completed by Ballymac Syd. Being the sole wide seed looks fairly alright on
paper but the pressure is on him here in a big way because he has to prove that
he can produce his best from Trap 6, something he hasn’t done the last twice.
His first round victory clearly indicates how fast he is and with at least a
couple of the runners to his inner certain to be denied execution of their best
race, he gets the nod to advance. Verdict
1-4-6
HEAT 2
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Fastest of the Kirby so far & battled bravely latest.
Better drawn now, big chance if trap.
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Suffered first defeat behind T3 last week but brilliant prior
& big say now if in front rank.
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Early pacer was gutsy in defeat of T3 last week. May need to
lead inner duo, respected!
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Performed with great credit behind T6 latest. Must return to
best breaking, chance if so.
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Has relished red jacket so far & different task now.
Strong runner can stay, retains claim.
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Powerful stayer at 525, warming to task in quality win
latest. Expect big late challenge.
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Another complicated conundrum in trio terms by I am willing
to reduce the winning selection to simply backing the fastest runner of the
event from what appears the plumb draw.
Ballymac Tas was
forced to battle for Kirby survival last week when arguably as impressive as
she had been in either of her previous victories. Rewarded with a much better
draw, a repeat of her smart breaks from the opening rounds can see her command
the rails throughout and she would prove too strong to contain in that
scenario.
Although with five inside seeds to his left, it is not a
given that Antigua Rum will find a
clear path at the bends with those who don’t lead on the inner likely to be
switching wide for a look at the hare. However, rivalling Ballymac Tas for the
strongest stayer remaining, he will be powering from halfway and if within any
reasonable range to the closing bends, a qualifying place can be at his mercy.
The draw is certainly more complicated for the other four
and although still a big outright fancy, this looks a tricky assignment for
Toolmaker Me Dad. Not quick to stride last week, he was led to the bend by
Deadly Diamond which wasn’t disastrous because he held an advantageous rails
position in behind. The question now is, if led by Deadly Diamond again, where
will Toolmaker be in relation to Ballymac Tas when Diamond turns the corner in
front of him?
Even further out, he could have Tullig Footpad or Herecomesdahoney
to negotiate. For the latter duo, this week’s draw really does look
treacherous. I would suggest that Tullig Footpad simply must return to his best
breaking form and at least match Deadly Diamond to the bend if he is to
advance. For Herecomesdahoney, a clear run is very hard to predict and it is
not ideal that he has strong stayers in the heat who he could possibly be
behind to halfway because his strong finish would pick-off some early pacers. But,
how does he avoid traffic to implement that staying power? Like Footpad, It
does look like a smart break is essential.
All considered, I’m giving Toolmaker Me Dad the nod in the trio while retaining the notion
that he may be best off if Tas bombs from Trap 1 to leave him the rails pitch
in behind her. Verdict: 1-6-2
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