Quarter-final
sectionals
They say three into two won’t go but in the quarter-final
heats of the 2019 Con & Annie Kirby Memorial at Limerick on Saturday, it
was more a case of six into three will not go as a dramatic session of
quarter-final heats saw supremely talented youngsters scrambling for precious
qualifying places where victory became irrelevant while desperately seeking to
keep Kirby dreams alive.
You could throw any amount of adjectives at a report on
Saturday’s action but I’ve settled on brutal for it was quite scary as simply a
racing fan to see this cast of stars thundering into a first bend when you knew
that something had to give and that proper outright fancies were certain to be
eliminated.
Aside from being capable of posting blistering clocks, it
was the depth of talent amongst this cast of 2019 which ensured that this event
was the most competitive of a seven year Kirby history and it was always going
to reach a stage where some would simply have to cede. At quarter-final stage, we
reached our pinch-point!
With so many survivors bearing a similar racing style, we
struggled to get accurate sectional times on many for the opening 300 yards
this week but those in the early paced bracket had already signalled their
abilities before Saturday. Many in that mode were eliminated but an interesting
aspect which is revealed below is that we now have a clear “strongest stayer”
to focus on as Antigua Rum clearly emphasised how beneficial his stamina can be
in an event with so many doing it the opposite way!
Next best in the staying department is Ballymac Tas and you
could only be impressed further by her battling performance to qualify from a
treacherous position behind Herecomesdahoney in Heat 4. She remains the fastest
of the event while enhancing her claims despite defeat and offered relief to
Liam Dowling for there should be no Kirby report written this week without
offering best wishes to his Cuore Di Ferro.
Gratefully completing the circuit
after a fall in the opening heat when facing a nightmare Trap 6 draw, he all
but secured qualification before tumbling at halfway. A fate he did not deserve
and hammered home the precarious nature of these quarter-finals for a relieved
attendance as he made his way along the home-straight.
*As always, only the
leader's numbers at the respective marks are set in stone while those behind
are calculated but we have done this enough now to know that even when a touch
off the mark, it really will be very minor. Remarks are offered to indicate
that a particular sectional could have been faster with a clear run but again,
use your judgement to assess how much any figure is affected and I would always
assert that the figures here should be analysed while watching the videos to
fully appreciate the splits in the context of how the race was run. Descending
order from quarter-final on top in red to opening round on the bottom for each
runner.
Heat 1 28.70
|
||
Deadly Diamond
|
16.22 bump
16.25 touch
16.62 ckd
|
12.48
12.57
12.36
|
Toolmaker Me Dad
|
16.58 bmp
16.15
16.10
|
12.22
12.21
12.17
|
Grangeview West
|
16.65 blk
16.12
16.00
|
12.33
12.44
12.25
|
You really have to hand it to this Michael O’Donovan winner
who was made to battle for control of the rails at the opening bend. He needed
to lead Toolmaker Me Dad to his inner for qualification hopes and even with a
bump to his hinds on the run-up, he again displayed the early pace that keeps
his realistic Kirby hopes alive.
Still without a completely clear passage to the 300 yard
mark, it is fair to assume that he can pretty much match any of the field in
the early part of the race. Excepting his better finishing split on the faster
circuit for Round One, what the numbers do reveal is that his outright claims
are polarised, in that he must reach the closing bends while in full command.
12.48 this week, and 12.57 a week earlier, won’t see him defend small halfway
leads over many who remain to semi-final stage.
A first defeat for Toolmaker Me Dad and he simply wasn’t
away well enough this time. Trainer Robert Gleeson had hinted that he wasn’t
convinced his young star, although an inside seed, truly wants the red jacket
but again, it came in handy this week for while reaching the bend on the inside
of a line of four behind the leaders, he came off best from a bump when all but
assured qualification at the top of the back-straight.
His poor start aside however, he does appear to be holding
his form when you examine his finishing split. Three times now he has covered
the closing 225 yards within five spots and they are the figures of a strong
runner. He will hold claims in any company when front rank to halfway and the
300 yard figures he posted in the earlier rounds clearly show that he can be
with the best to that point. Obviously still has a big say.
“We got the rub of the green tonight!” They were Michael
Hogan’s words after his gutsy Grangeview West was the chief beneficiary
following the fall of Coure Di Ferro. But she had earned that luck in her two
brilliant opening successes and her performance here was a brave one, from a draw
she really did not want.
Crowding and bumping saw her tail just about last at the
crown of the bends and it was no mean feat to subsequently repel Winetavern Don
on the run to the line. Back nearer her first round finishing split this week
is encouraging and given her rails draw in the semi-finals, her figures from
the previous rounds could well see her in the final if repeated.
Heat 2 28.54
|
||
Toolmaker Josie
|
16.28 ckd
16.34 touch
16.22 brush
|
12.26
12.55
12.33
|
Rattling Conor
|
16.52 ckd / bmp
16.36 ckd
16.57 ckd
|
12.44
12.52 ckd
12.26
|
Deadly Storm
|
16.58 crd / bmp
16.34 bmp
16.06
|
12.61
12.53
12.38 bmp
|
Another heat where the run to the bend was always going to
be crucial and it worked in Josie’s favour that he was not amongst the leaders
when reaching the corner. The concern here will be that he was essentially
outpaced by three rivals on the run-up, but, only one of those managed to
advance!
He was forced to check slightly before finding a gaping gap
on the rails off the second turn but he was highly impressive thereafter.
Overall, the figures suggest that he is in and around the 16.20 mark to 300
yards and with this being very close to a clear run, reveal that he is even
paced throughout. Just like his kennel companion, that very respectable 12.26
finishing split says that he is taking the runs well and will give him every
opportunity of converting if shading the lead beyond halfway but he will need
draws to get the run with a few remaining that can lead him to the corner.
Mossie O’Connor’s Rattling Conor is developing an aura in
the Kirby which almost exudes a defiant confidence in that they just can’t seem
to knock him out. He has yet to find a clear run and we are in the dark as to
what he could post for the opening 300 yards. He’ll have to trap and secure a
path to show us at some point but what he has shown is flashes of real pace. He
was crossed on the run-up here, bumped at the bend and was a bad fifth at the
crown. Granted there was trouble for rivals ahead of him but once swinging off
the second bend, he displayed a powerful turn of pace along the back-straight.
Odd to assert after watching three rounds but he remains a little unexposed. A
faster break however is going to be required…..and soon!
Michael O’Donovan managed to guide two through to semi-final
stage from his team of four on Saturday and Gary Hannon won’t mind me reporting
that he was beaming leaving Limerick as Deadly Storm delivered a second
semi-finalist for the Bray owner. Storm was one of three first bend leaders
here who raced in tight quarters while all impeding each other.
Only fourth at
halfway however, he battled gamely to qualify and he is another of the early
pacers who retain the ability to dominate a heat when free to gallop the
opening bends independently. I wouldn’t be over harsh on him for that 12.61
finish either because he has done better and had an awful amount of work done
before reaching the closing stages this time. His Kirby plan is very simple,
must lead and hang on!
Heat 3 28.39
|
||
Antigua Rum
|
16.41 crd
16.39
16.67 crd
|
11.98
12.19 ckd
11.98
|
Tullig Footpad
|
16.40 bmp
16.48 ckd
16.28
|
12.34
12.44 brush
12.35
|
Ballymac Syd
|
16.65 bmp
16.57 blk
15.93
|
12.14
12.33 crd
12.14
|
Simply not possessing the early pace of his rivals here,
this heat fell just perfectly for the staying abilities of Tom O’Neill’s
Antigua Rum. Sitting in a pocket behind the leaders having been tight for room
on the approach, he ducked inward to cleverly find a run at the bends before
delivering his powerful challenge on the outside from the second turn.
Up to this point, he was among a handful of runners capable
of dipping under the 12.00 barrier coming home but with his fellow stayers
losing out at quarter-final stage, notably Redzer Ardfert in this heat, he is
now the strongest remaining in the event. We had noted here that his very solid
16.39 in Round Two was an ominous sign if indeed he could get the room to
repeat it. His finishing kick will clearly convert victory every time he is
front rank to halfway but that early figure is key.
With the heats being so competitive, and the semis likely to
be the same, those capable of leading him are scrambling to execute their best
race against similar types and as such are being forced to race in tight
quarters. His lack of early dash in the context of this Kirby has now almost
become an advantage and when considered that our fastest 300 yard split this
week was 16.19, Antigua would be only three lengths behind approaching the
third turn. No leader would want that and on a circuit that can prove very
tiring over five rounds, Tom O’Neill has a challenger who is absolutely
relishing the task.
Tullig Footpad ran here like he knew that the Pat Buckley
dream of four in-a-row was resting solely with him. I’ve put bump after his
opening split and while there was nothing obvious, I’m sure there was more than
the odd touch as he competed in tight quarters to the back-straight. He showed
smart pace to hit the front when swinging off the second bend and we know he
can post faster figures. As with any of the early pacers in the quarters, he
avoided a banana skin here but his 12.34 is respectable for an early paced
runner and his Kirby task is simple from here on, he must return to his best
breaking form and dictate for victories.
Liam Dowling could have been forgiven for thinking that his
Kirby challenge was about to come to a crashing halt here as Ballymac Syd raced
in last place at the crown of the bends when bumped upon turning. He again got
himself out of trouble however with powerful back-straight pace before his
confirmed strong running abilities secured qualification. 12.14 is very strong
coming home and that seems to be his number. When added to his first round
15.93, that amounts to the figures of a classic winner so it is very straight
forward from here, he simply must get back to the better break he showed in
Round One because right now, he is struggling to implement his best race from
Trap 6 as he is not showing enough on the run to the bend to clear the slick
early pacers that remain.
Heat 4 28.30
|
||
Herecomesdahoney
|
16.19
16.24
16.45 brush
|
12.11
12.27
12.13
|
Spoofer
|
16.35 touch
16.18
16.17 ckd
|
12.16
12.32
12.28 bmp
|
Ballymac Tas
|
16.39 blk
16.10
16.01
|
12.13
12.13
11.96
|
On a night where the draw proved crucial, Herescomesdahoney
had the best of it and he took full advantage when reaffirming his highly
plausible Kirby credentials as the sole Graham Holland survivor.
The figures clearly indicate that he is growing within the
event with his best splits both starting and finishing and, while not the
fastest of the Kirby in either section, the sum total amounts to an even paced
runner who when left to his own devices can be a classic contender in any
company because has no weak point on any part of the circuit. Yes he has
benefited from the red jacket in all three rounds but he broke very well here.
You would naturally have concerns when drawn further out, which he will be this
week, as many can go to the bend alongside him but his strength beyond halfway
means that qualification is not dependent on leading. 12.11 will see him
bearing down on many early pacers close home and if you weren’t convinced
before this week, you must now be certain that he is a big Kirby player!
Philip Gough would probably have hoped for Spoofer to lead
the winner on the inside here but it worked out quite alright when he didn’t.
He essentially missed his break and we already know that his 300 yard figure
can come down. Being on the rails, a minor brush at the first turn didn’t
interrupt his gallop very much and what connections will be delighted to see is
the improvement in his finish. Another for whom draws will be crucial and he will
have to remedy this latest break. All in all, a very similar type of runner to
the winner.
A first defeat for Ballymac Tas here but I suggested to Liam
Dowling that she was as good as her opening round victory on Saturday, and I
stand over that assertion. Edging left on the approach to the turn, she did
remarkably well to keep her legs in what could have been a fateful bump at that
point. She was devouring ground along the back-straight until forced to check
behind Spoofer at the crown of the closing bends so her finishing split of
12.13 further emphasises her staying ability over 525 yards. She won’t want a
draw like this again but this commentator will argue that she is still top dog
in the Kirby with her better draw this week adding confidence to that claim.
